tags: Bitcoin has many properties. It's influence on your psyche is probably its most powerful.

content:
Marty's Bent
------------

[![Bitcoin: The Greatest Founder's Coach Out There](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-29-at-1.50.20---PM.png)](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1972693315695833320?ref=tftc.io)

via [TFTC](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1972693315695833320?ref=tftc.io)

![Bitcoin: The Greatest Founder's Coach Out There](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/09/martybent_A_man_sitting_at_his_desk_weighing_two_things_on_a_ba_324ba7e2-0721-4109-b7ee-4a6235ffa756.png)

I had the pleasure of sitting down with my friend Luke Thomas last Friday to record an episode of the TFTC podcast:

Luke has been instrumental in helping me think about how we're building the business side of things at TFTC for a few years now. He's someone I greatly admire and has always been incredibly generous with his time and has been more than willing to knowledge share as it pertains to trends he's seeing in AI, marketing and business building. When you find the time, I highly recommend you check out our discussion. Especially if you're curious to learn about the state of AI, how businesses are applying it correctly and incorrectly, what businesses will thrive moving forward and the intersection of AI and bitcoin.

I won't spoil the whole conversation, but I wanted to expand on one of the topics we discussed; viewing bitcoin as a "founder's coach". This is a concept that we have never articulated in this way, but is core to everything we do at [Ten31](https://www.ten31.xyz/?ref=tftc.io). If you've been reading this newsletter for long enough I'm going to take it that you've also been holding bitcoin and if you've been holding bitcoin for long enough I'm going to assume that it has rewired your brain in terms of how you approach your personal finances. Once you experience the positive benefits of holding bitcoin as it monetizes and increases in purchasing power, you are inevitably forced to audit everything else in your life that you allocate money to and seriously weigh the opportunity costs.

"Would my money be better spent at the bar, or does it make more sense save some money and buy some bitcoin instead?"

"Should I stretch for that second home we'll only live in for a couple of months a year, or should I buy bitcoin instead?"

"Am I working hard enough? Are there other things I could be doing on the side to make more money to save in bitcoin?"

Bitcoin forces you to see the opportunity cost in everything. The impetus for us creating the [Opportunity Cost](https://www.opportunitycost.app/?ref=tftc.io) extension was to help make this process easier and crystal clear.

But, as Luke notes and we viscerally understand at Ten31, this same concept applies to businesses and the founders who run them. Once you put bitcoin on your company's balance sheet, it immediately goes to work as a founder's coach that forces you to considerably weigh opportunity costs, lights a fire of urgency under your ass to scale revenue and profitability as quickly as possible, and - most importantly - think with a very long-term perspective in mind. Every decision is met with the nagging question, "Is this going to help us accumulate more bitcoin?"

We've seen bitcoin's role as a founder's coach have profound effects on the companies we've invested in at Ten31. Many of the companies in our portfolio have raised money, allocated a material portion of their raise to establish a bitcoin treasury, and have had the luxury of not having to go back to the market to raise and dilute their equity. On top of this, with the opportunity cost of capital allocation brought to the fore of every decision made within the company, which has enabled companies to scale revenue and reach profitability with team headcounts that are far smaller than what the startup world has come to expect over the last three decades.

Jack Mallers talks about this a lot in regards to what he and his team have built at Strike. They are six years old, very profitable, scaling extremely fast, have more operational exposure globally than Coinbase and have done so with a head count lower than 100.

The founder's coach feature of bitcoin is profoundly powerful for individual companies. I've seen it up close and personal here at TFTC and across the portfolios of companies we're invested in at Ten31. I can only imagine the compounding second and third order effects on the economy, quality of life and the strength of the human experience when every company runs on a bitcoin standard.

It's fitting that I had this conversation with Luke on Friday and committed to writing about this part of our conversation today because I just landed in Utah for our annual Ten31 portfolio company retreat. I'll be spending the next few days with the Ten31 team and executives from our portfolio to expand on this idea, many others and how we can work harder and smarter to bring about a bitcoin standard.

We're going to win.

* * *

### This Will Be the "Most Hated Rally" of the Next Decade

Jeff Walton predicts Bitcoin treasury strategies will spark the most despised market rally of the next decade. He argues this hatred stems from a fundamental clash of worldviews - traditional finance professionals can't grasp why companies should hold Bitcoin, while many Bitcoiners don't understand sophisticated leverage strategies. This creates a perfect storm of misunderstanding from both camps.

> "Risk is mispriced globally... I think there will be a risk repricing over time that is just going to confuse so many people."- [Jeff Walton](https://x.com/PunterJeff?ref=tftc.io)

Walton believes these strategies are fundamentally reshaping finance by demonstrating that Bitcoin-backed securities offer superior risk-adjusted returns compared to traditional corporate debt. As more companies adopt these strategies and outperform traditional investments, the entire financial world will be forced to reconsider basic assumptions about value, risk, and corporate treasury management - a painful but necessary evolution.

Check out the [full podcast here](https://youtu.be/EAjpgYWZ2zk?ref=tftc.io) for more on M&A strategies, Bitcoin-backed credit instruments and S&P 500 inclusion dynamics.

* * *

### Headlines of the Day

[BLS Halts Data if US Government Shuts Down](https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1972697688635289727?ref=tftc.io)

[Bitcoin Credit Enables Free Market Soft Landing](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1972684793956479394?ref=tftc.io)

[Momentum Builds on COVID Vaccine Exposures](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1972718516550684954?ref=tftc.io)

[Coinbase CEO Bullish on Legislation](https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1972714511821156780?ref=tftc.io)

[Gold Hits All-Time High Above $3830](https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1972710018119074021?ref=tftc.io)

* * *

### Bitcoin Has Crossed the Rubicon

This extended $75k–$110k range has caused some to wonder if the bull run is exhausted. But what if the on-chain evidence tells a totally different story? Join James Check (Checkmate of Checkonchain) and Connor Dolan for a data-driven discussion on what a maturing bitcoin market means for the road ahead.

James will break down:

*   Institutions reshaping the cycle: ETF flows and institutional allocator demand setting higher floors
*   Chopsolidation: why time-pain in the $75k–$110k range signals resilience, not
    exhaustion
*   Conviction on display: heavy distributions absorbed while long-term holders remain in control

On-chain metrics show bitcoin has crossed the Rubicon—from a nascent store of value into a true institutional-grade asset class. This session will help you understand what that means for this bull market and beyond—and how you might position yourself appropriately.

**Tuesday, September 30th at 3PM CT — online, free to attend.**

[![Bitcoin: The Greatest Founder's Coach Out There](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/09/D1-copy-1.png)](https://unchnd.co/3Ve67mv?ref=tftc.io)

[Register Now](https://unchnd.co/3Ve67mv?ref=tftc.io)

* * *

### Obscura – The World’s Best VPN Built by Bitcoiners

Created by Carl Dong (former Bitcoin Core contributor), unlike other VPNs, it _can’t_ log your activity by design, delivering verifiable privacy you can trust.

[![Bitcoin: The Greatest Founder's Coach Out There](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/08/newsletter-1.jpg)](https://obscura.net/?ref=tftc.io)

[USE CODE TFTC25](https://obscura.net/?ref=tftc.io)

**Outsmarts internet censorship**: works even on the most restrictive Wi-Fi networks where other VPNs fail.
**Pay with bitcoin over Lightning:** better privacy and low fees.
**No email required:** accounts are generated like bitcoin wallets.
**No trade-offs**: browse freely with fast, reliable speeds.

**Exclusive Deal for TFTC Listeners:**
Sign up at [obscura.net](https://obscura.net/?ref=tftc.io) and use code **TFTC25** for **25% off your first 12 months**.

Now available on **macOS, iOS, and WireGuard**, with more platforms coming soon — so your privacy travels with you wherever you go.

* * *

_Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $200M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at_ [ten31.vc/invest](https://ten31.vc/invest?ref=tftc.io)_._

* * *

**Final thought...**

I'm honored to know the REAL John Arnold.

* * *

_Download our free browser extension, **Opportunity Cost**:_ [https://www.opportunitycost.app/](https://www.opportunitycost.app/?ref=tftc.io) start thinking in SATS today.

_Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily:_ [_https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/_](https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/)

_Subscribe to our YouTube channels and follow us on Nostr and X:_

 @media screen and (max-width: 480px) { .mobile-padding { padding: 10px 0 !important; } .social-container { width: 100% !important; max-width: 260px !important; } .social-icon { padding: 0 !important; } .social-icon img { height: 32px !important; width: 32px !important; } .icon-


tags: From bitcoin treasury strategies reaching institutional tipping points to the erosion of civil liberties through digital infrastructure, here are the most significant predictions that emerged.

content:
### Digital ID Implementation Will Accelerate Globally as Countries Fight Dollar Stablecoin Capital Flight - Whitney Webb & Mark Goodwin

![This Week's Top Predictions](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/09/terribletrader_digital_ID_surveillance_state_CBDC_dystopian_c_459a326e-a00c-4590-9b1b-d593e6370bea_3.png)

Webb and Goodwin predict that within the next 12-24 months, we'll see a dramatic acceleration in digital ID implementation worldwide - not primarily in the US first, but in countries desperately trying to prevent capital flight to dollar stablecoins. They point to Vietnam's recent closure of 84 million bank accounts as the canary in the coal mine, with citizens only able to regain banking access by submitting to biometric verification. The mechanism is clear: as dollar stablecoins proliferate globally and offer yield, why would anyone hold depreciating local currencies? Webb notes that the ECB is already panicking about this dynamic, stating "we're screwed if we let dollar stablecoins take over." The prediction is that countries will implement increasingly draconian digital ID requirements to maintain control over their monetary systems, using the Genius Act's passage in the US as political cover. This creates a paradox where US dollar dominance actually accelerates surveillance infrastructure globally.

### Pre-Crime AI Surveillance Will Become Normalized Following Manufactured Crisis Events - Whitney Webb & Mark Goodwin

The most chilling prediction centers on the normalization of pre-crime surveillance infrastructure within the next 2-3 years. Webb traces how every administration since 9/11 has expanded domestic terror frameworks, and predicts that recent events will be used to justify AI-powered predictive policing at scale. The infrastructure already exists: Palantir's pre-crime algorithms, social media monitoring systems, and William Barr's 2019 legalization of pre-crime arrests. Webb predicts we'll see a major "galvanizing event" that will reduce public resistance to having AI scan all social media posts for "early neuropsychiatric warning signs." The mechanism already exists through companies like Carbine (funded by Jeffrey Epstein) that have quietly taken over 911 systems across America. Once normalized, Webb warns this will extend beyond security into employment: "What happens when it's like, well, if you want to work and have a job and not just have UBI, you need a brain chip?" The timeline accelerates as Palantir's integration with government systems deepens under the current administration.

### Bitcoin Treasury Companies Will See 100x Growth in Fixed Income Adoption Within 10 Years - Jeff Walton

Jeff Walton laid out a compelling case for why Bitcoin-backed securities will completely disrupt the $300 trillion fixed income market over the next decade. He predicts that within 10 years, we'll see a 100-fold increase in the adoption of perpetual preferred equities and other Bitcoin-backed credit instruments. The math is straightforward: these instruments offer 9.5-10% yields while being 8x overcollateralized with Bitcoin, compared to traditional junk bonds offering 7% with far greater risk. As Walton explained, "Capital will move to where it's treated best," and fixed income managers who fail to adopt these instruments will see their clients flee to competitors offering 150+ basis points of additional return with less risk. The key catalyst will be insurance companies and pension funds recognizing that digital risk (Bitcoin volatility) is fundamentally safer than physical risk (corporate bankruptcy, natural disasters). Once credit rating agencies begin rating these instruments, the floodgates will open as institutional mandates allow allocation to rated securities.

* * *

[![This Week's Top Predictions](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/04/X-1.png)](https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com/?ref=tftc.io)

Blockspace conducts cutting-edge proprietary research for investors.

Luke Dashjr's Nuclear Option: Bitcoin Developer Proposes Controversial Transaction Censorship System
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bitcoin Core contributor Luke Dashjr is developing a mechanism to retroactively remove illegal content from Bitcoin's blockchain using Zero Knowledge Proofs, according to leaked messages reported by The Rage. The proposal would create a multi-sig council with power to delete confirmed transactions containing Child Sexual Abuse Material (CSAM) approximately one hour after confirmation.

While Dashjr claims this would "save Bitcoin," his scheme represents an unprecedented censorship capability that could extend far beyond its stated purpose. The developer, who already runs the censorship-focused OCEAN mining pool and Bitcoin Knots implementation, admits this constitutes "technically a hardfork" – though likely affecting only Knots nodes initially.

Critical details remain murky: Who selects council members? How are ZK proofs managed? What prevents mission creep to other transaction types? Most concerning, Dashjr allegedly mentioned coordinating legal letters to pressure the industry into adopting anti-CSAM measures – essentially manufacturing the crisis his solution would address.

Blockstream CEO Adam Back confirmed OCEAN has contacted rival mining pools about this initiative. The Bitcoin community's response has been overwhelmingly negative, recognizing this as a dangerous precedent that hands governments a ready-made censorship tool while solving a problem that barely exists on Bitcoin's blockchain.

[_Link to Full Article_](https://blockspace.media/insight/is-luke-dashjr-planning-a-bitcoin-hard-fork/?ref=tftc.io)

Subscribe to them here (seriously, you should): [https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com/](https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com/?ref=tftc.io)

* * *

_Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $150M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at_ [ten31.vc/invest](https://ten31.vc/invest?ref=tftc.io)_._

* * *

_Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily:_ [_https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/_](https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/)

_STACK SATS hat:_ [https://tftcmerch.io/](https://tftcmerch.io/?ref=tftc.io)

_Subscribe to our YouTube channels and follow us on Nostr and X:_

 @media screen and (max-width: 480px) { .mobile-padding { padding: 10px 0 !important; } .social-container { width: 100% !important; max-width: 260px !important; } .social-icon { padding: 0 !important; } .social-icon img { height: 32px !important; width: 32px !important; } .icon-cell { padding: 0 4px !important; } } .mj-column-per-33-333333333333336 { width: 25% !important; max-width: 25%; } .moz-text-html .mj-column-per-33-333333333333336 { width: 25% !important; max-width: 25%; } /\* Helps with rendering in various email clients \*/ body { margin: 0 !important; padding: 0 !important; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100% !important; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100% !important; } img { -ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; } /\* Prevents Gmail from changing the text color in email threads \*/ .im { color: inherit !important; }

[![This Week's Top Predictions](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/03/yt.png)](https://youtube.com/@TFTC?feature=shared&ref=tftc.io)

[![This Week's Top Predictions](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/03/insta.png)](https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/?ref=tftc.io)

[![This Week's Top Predictions](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/03/twitter.png)](https://twitter.com/TFTC21?ref=tftc.io)

[![This Week's Top Predictions](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/03/primall.png)](https://primal.net/tftc?ref=tftc.io)


tags: The acceleration toward the digital ID system is upon us.

content:
Marty's Bent
------------

![UK To Mandate Digital IDs For Adults](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-25-at-4.38.35---PM.png)

via [TFTC](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1971235726307230192?ref=tftc.io)

![UK To Mandate Digital IDs For Adults](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/09/martybent_british_prime_minister_keir_starmer_winking_at_a_man__2fa9a662-bd58-4ede-9eaa-07f1e3606e3d.png)

We've been warning for the better part of a year to keep an eye on the conversation around immigration policy in the United States due to the fact that it is the perfect issue to Trojan Horse digital ID policy and thrust it on the masses. There is an obvious problem at the border, tens of millions of illegal immigrants flooded into the country between 2020-2024, and the Trump administration won last year's election by leading with immigration policy and has followed through on that promise. However, it is a great excuse to introduce a digital ID system in the United States.

"To ensure that illegal immigrants aren't taking the jobs of American citizens and leeching of the system without going through the process of getting a visa or becoming a citizen, everyone is going to be issued a digital ID tied to your social security number and some biometric data. You'll use this ID to get a job and do other things within the economy."

That's how it starts, but soon enough there are a number of public catastrophes that "require" a government response that requires a digital ID to access internet services, websites and social media platforms so that "nefarious individuals" can be easily tracked and apprehended before they commit crimes. If the efforts are successful and people welcome the digital ID with open arms or are forcibly pushed in against their will you end up in a completely dystopian system that has ultimate control over many parts of your life.

[![UK To Mandate Digital IDs For Adults](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-25-at-11.18.16---PM.png)](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1970943293342310649?ref=tftc.io)

via [TFTC](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1970943293342310649?ref=tftc.io)

Luckily for us, this hasn't happened in the United States and hopefully it never does. Though, the push for a Real ID for travel and the Treasury Department and FinCen pushing to expand the Patriot Act to include digital assets is a bit worrisome and prerequisites to a full on digital ID system. It will be important to stay vigilant and make sure things don't continue moving toward an even more burdensome surveillance state. Unfortunately for our friends across the pond in the United Kingdom, the era of digital IDs seems to be upon them.

Earlier today, it was announced by the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, that a digital ID system will be made law and it will be mandatory for every British adult to acquire one so that the British government can... "stop the boats" by using the IDs to "stop illegals from working". Not even trying to hide it. This couldn't be more painfully ironic if they tried because Starmer is the leader of the Labour party, which is responsible for the lax immigration policy that has been instituted in the UK for well over a decade. A classic move out of the problem-reaction-solution playbook that maniacal and despotic governments like to use on populaces they'd like to control. Create a massive problem by flooding a small island in the Atlantic with millions of immigrants, give them free benefits and let them run wild, put so much stress on social programs and the economy overall that people get pushed to the point where they hit the streets and begin to try to take matters into their own hands, begin passing speech laws that throw people in cages for questioning the government's policies and highlighting its effects, and then BOOM.

"We can't have you doing that, mate. After years of ignoring the problem we now recognize that it exists. To solve it we're going to need you to look into this orb so that we can tie your iris to your national insurance number. You'll need to use it with everything you do from shopping to creating an account on social media platforms. Don't worry. It's for your safety and the strength of the British economy."

Real shame, innit?

This is not a good day for the British, or humanity at large. The Five Eyes have a very tight bond and it isn't hard to imagine that the other four (the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) are pressured to join the party so that their intelligence sharing is more streamlined. The UK could be the test bed.

Be aware, freaks.

* * *

### Bitcoin Is Creating a "Soft Landing" Through Market Forces

I brought up an interesting parallel during my conversation with Walton - the Biden administration and Fed talked endlessly about engineering a "soft landing" for the economy after COVID stimulus. But Jeff Walton sees something more profound happening: the free market is actually creating its own soft landing by replacing weak collateral with Bitcoin. Rather than relying on top-down monetary policy, companies are voluntarily recapitalizing the financial system with superior assets.

> "If Chevron had spent 25% of their $70 billion buyback on Bitcoin, the value today would be worth more than their market cap."- [Jeff Walton](https://x.com/PunterJeff?ref=tftc.io)

Jeff expanded on this, explaining how Bitcoin-backed instruments provide real stability and yield without depending on uncertain future cash flows. This bottom-up transformation represents true market innovation - not government intervention, but entrepreneurs building better financial infrastructure. The soft landing isn't coming from the Fed; it's coming from Bitcoin treasury companies creating superior products that naturally attract capital.

Check out the [full podcast here](https://youtu.be/EAjpgYWZ2zk?ref=tftc.io) for more on S&P 500 inclusion debates, perpetual preferred mechanics and global risk repricing.

* * *

### Headlines of the Day

[China Ties Kids' School Access to Digital ID](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1971238356236611881?ref=tftc.io)

[UK Plans Mandatory Digital ID for Adults](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1971235726307230192?ref=tftc.io)

[Dutch Government Considers Bitcoin Reserve](https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1971223682874999034?ref=tftc.io)

[US Revises Q2 GDP Growth to 3.8 Percent](https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1971201536551428338?ref=tftc.io)

* * *

### Obscura – The World’s Best VPN Built by Bitcoiners

Created by Carl Dong (former Bitcoin Core contributor), unlike other VPNs, it _can’t_ log your activity by design, delivering verifiable privacy you can trust.

[![UK To Mandate Digital IDs For Adults](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/08/newsletter-1.jpg)](https://obscura.net/?ref=tftc.io)

[USE CODE TFTC25](https://obscura.net/?ref=tftc.io)

**Outsmarts internet censorship**: works even on the most restrictive Wi-Fi networks where other VPNs fail.
**Pay with bitcoin over Lightning:** better privacy and low fees.
**No email required:** accounts are generated like bitcoin wallets.
**No trade-offs**: browse freely with fast, reliable speeds.

**Exclusive Deal for TFTC Listeners:**
Sign up at [obscura.net](https://obscura.net/?ref=tftc.io) and use code **TFTC25** for **25% off your first 12 months**.

Now available on **macOS, iOS, and WireGuard**, with more platforms coming soon — so your privacy travels with you wherever you go.

* * *

### Bitcoiners: Don’t let nefarious actors steal your sats.

SLNT's patented Faraday backpacks, sleeves, and dry bags secure your hardware wallet or electronics against hackers and solar flares.

Block WiFi, GPS, RFID, and EMPs with our MIL-STD compliant tech. Made in the USA, trusted by 8 military contracts. Protect your wealth, stay untraceable.

Add Faraday protection to your stack here: [https://slnt.com/tftc](https://slnt.com/pages/tftc?ref=tftc.io) & use code _TFTC for 15% off_

[![UK To Mandate Digital IDs For Adults](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/09/Reclaim-your-privacy.png)](https://slnt.com/pages/tftc?ref=tftc.io)

[Use Code: TFTC](https://slnt.com/pages/tftc?ref=tftc.io)

* * *

_Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $200M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at_ [ten31.vc/invest](https://ten31.vc/invest?ref=tftc.io)_._

* * *

**Final thought...**

I've fallen down a comedy commentary rabbit hole that has made me very introspective of what we're doing here at TFTC.

* * *

_Download our free browser extension, **Opportunity Cost**:_ [https://www.opportunitycost.app/](https://www.opportunitycost.app/?ref=tftc.io) start thinking in SATS today.

_Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily:_ [_https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/_](https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/)

_Subscribe to our YouTube channels and follow us on Nostr and X:_

 @media screen and (max-width: 480px) { .mobile-padding { padding: 10px 0 !important; } .social-container { width: 100% !important; max-width: 260px !important; } .social-icon { padding: 0 !important; } .social-icon img { height: 32px !important; width: 32px !important; } .icon-cell { padding: 0 4px !important; } } .mj-column-per-33-333333333333336 { width: 25% !important; max-width: 25%; } .moz-text-html .mj-column-per-33-333333333333336 { width: 25% !important; max-width: 25%; } /\* Helps with rendering in various email clients \*/ body { margin: 0 !important; padding: 0 !important; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100% !important; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100% !important; } img { -ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; } /\* Prevents Gmail from changing the text color in email threads \*/ .im { color: inherit !important; }

[![UK To Mandate Digital IDs For Adults](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/03/yt.png)](https://youtube.com/@TFTC?feature=shared&ref=tftc.io)

[![UK To Mandate Digital IDs For Adults](https://www.tftc.io/content/


tags: Luke Thomas shows how AI agents and Bitcoin treasuries give startups unbounded leverage and force smarter capital allocation.

content:
Key Takeaways
-------------

![TFTC - The AI Boom Will Change Bitcoin Forever! Expert Explains How | Luke Thomas](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Luke-Thomas.jpg)

Marty sat down with Luke Thomas, founder of [Formable.ai](https://formable.ai/?ref=tftc.io), who argues that AI and Bitcoin together represent a once-in-a-generation shift in how businesses form, operate, and scale. He frames AI as “unbounded leverage,” where startups can achieve outsized results with far fewer resources, while Bitcoin serves as a financial foundation that forces founders to think more carefully about capital allocation. Startups that embrace AI agents as digital co-workers can move faster than incumbents weighed down by tech debt, rigid structures, and resistant employees. Meanwhile, Bitcoin rewires treasury management, creating a new “hurdle rate” for profitable businesses: outperform Bitcoin or risk irrelevance. Luke emphasizes that small businesses have the greatest advantage, since they can adopt AI and Bitcoin without bureaucratic baggage, enabling new models of growth and capital preservation in a chaotic, shifting landscape.

Best Quotes
-----------

“We actually want to beat the hurdle rate. We want to beat the Bitcoin appreciation rate. If we don’t, we’re cooked.”

“AI agents are like little digital employees… they can contain a bunch of information about your business and do the job better than a human, because the agent doesn’t forget.”

“Most businesses sprinkle AI on top of old systems. Startups can rebuild from scratch and harness unbounded leverage.”

“Holding even a little Bitcoin on your balance sheet is like hiring a coach, it rewires how you think about building a business.”

“The number one benefit of a Bitcoin treasury isn’t price appreciation, it’s that it makes you a better founder.”

Conclusion
----------

This conversation highlights how AI and Bitcoin together are reshaping the future of business. AI delivers unprecedented productivity through digital co-workers, while Bitcoin disciplines capital allocation and provides a hedge against fiat debasement. Incumbents struggle under old-world structures, but startups that embrace these technologies gain an edge in speed, adaptability, and financial resilience. For Luke, the combination of AI’s unbounded leverage and Bitcoin’s financial foundation marks a paradigm shift: the businesses that adapt will thrive, while those that cling to legacy systems will fade.

Timestamps
----------

0:00 - Intro
0:45 - Luke’s Background
7:11 - Unbounded leverage, AI adoption struggle
13:54 - Osbcura & Bitkey
15:39 - AI evolution retrospective
22:59 - AI agents
30:05 - SLNT & Unchained
31:37 - AI disruption of incumbents
38:41 - Bureaucratic roadblocks
41:59 - AI arms race
51:22 - Product design and UX
55:31 - Building at Formable
1:01:50 - AI-first, decentralization
1:05:50 - Navigating hype
1:12:01 - AI at TFTC
1:20:32 - Bitcoin in the AI strategy
1:29:01 - Adoption timeline for Bitcoin treasuries

Transcript
----------

(00:00) When you're able to store your capital in a better way, are you going to hire that super senior leader that wants a ton of money and may not work out? Or you could just shovel that into Bitcoin. I think that it's going to be a wonderful thing for businesses. We actually want to beat the hurdle rate. We want to beat the Bitcoin appreciation rate. If we don't, we're cooked.
(00:19) These startups that come out of nowhere and it's like, hey, we went from 0 to 100 million in like 8 months. No one's ever seen that before. You don't see a lot of it in the news. You will see more of it. We live in an age where there's kind of this like concept of like unbounded leverage. Your balance sheet is clearly an area where there needs to be some amount of leverage as well.
(00:35) We're only starting to see the beginning in the decade plus I've been in tech. This is easily the biggest shift I've ever seen. Luke, this is uh a great pleasure for me. I've been waiting for this this episode for I think years now. Well, uh I'm definitely excited to be here and uh to all your listeners, I'm sorry.
(01:01) Uh there'll be lots of rants, lots of uh lots of uh unhinged maybe unhinged thoughts. Um but I'm really excited to be here. Well, you've had an open invite to the show for I think at least two years now, and you said you've been saying for two years, when the time's right, and I feel like I have something to say, I will let you know. And that happened a couple weeks ago, and here we are.
(01:25) um thinking of how to start off this episode. I think it's important for the audience to get context. Luke has been uh somebody who's helped me immensely behind the scenes here at TFTC think about thinking about how to position uh the brand and how to increase our SEO. Not only that, how to lean into this AI revolution.
(01:47) And I think just to start off the conversations, get a little history of your career, what you've built, where you've worked, what you're working on now, and what people may may learn if they stick around for the whole episode. Yeah, sure. So, I'll do my best to keep it short. Um, yeah. So, a little bit about me. Um, I grew up in the middle of nowhere in Maine.
(02:10) Uh, up until, uh, when I first went to college, I had always lived on a dirt road. Um, I grew up in a uh small town um in uh in central Maine. It was about 800 people. I think half of the town was on some form of general assistance. Um I was homeschooled growing up. Um I uh attended, yeah, a mixture of homeschooling, private schooling. Um in high school, I ended up getting into web design.
(02:36) Um because I wanted to customize my MySpace profile. I thought it would be cool and maybe uh maybe more girls would talk to me. Um and so uh so that's what I did. I ended up uh basically devoting call it half of day. So I would homeschool for half of the day and then for like the other half of the day I would go to what's called a vocational technical school.
(03:00) Um and uh you know I was in a class with a bunch of kids that wanted to create video games. And I thought web design was cool and I thought maybe there's something there. Little did I know that it would basically influence the rest of my life to date. Um, and so yeah, in high school I kind of learned how to code very uh I wasn't very good at it, but I started creating websites for, you know, small businesses. I ended up um graduating.
(03:24) I I went to school one year in Boston because I thought sports management be would be really fun. Turns out that spending, you know, tens of thousands of dollars a year for fizzed classes probably wasn't the best idea. So I ended up uh uh going to school for marketing and uh paid my way through school.
(03:44) Um kind of did the consulting thing, ended up graduating college uh and wanted to join the startup thing. And so um long story short, my wife and I the second we graduated, we moved um to Boston. I started working in early stage tech companies. I originally joined as an engineer. Um quickly realized I wasn't good at writing code.
(04:03) Uh but I I always viewed uh writing code as a means to an end. For me it was like I loved the uh to grow businesses. And so I ended up uh kind of falling into this uh industry called like growth um which is you know how to think about marketing through a programmatic um lens like a programmer would. And anyway, did that for a few years.
(04:28) Um, you know, learned SEO, learned a bunch of, you know, internet marketing techniques and ended up falling down the product rabbit hole largely because, you know, when you build, uh, when you're building like a startup that is, you know, uh, like a digital product, um, a lot of the growth work, so to speak, that you do ends up actually being product work.
(04:46) It's like how can you create a product where these these like flywheels that help you grow at a low cost. So, you know, for those are who are familiar with like Dropbox, right? It's like people sign up for Dropbox, they get free space. If you want more free space, you share it with a friend. I became very obsessed with that. Um, and ended up doing that for a while.
(05:03) Um, in 2019, I decided to make the plunge, decided to start a remote work um, software company. I saw a bunch of these um, you know, fully distributed companies building their own like internet is the best way of describing it. um Zapier and Stripe and all these kind of well-known uh remote companies had kind of hand rolled their own systems.
(05:26) So I started that and then six months later COVID hit um and so we experienced a lot of growth. Uh I did that for about two years but I ended up shutting the business down because I didn't see a clear path to scaling um on the revenue side in particular. So I ended up joining Zapier for about three years and uh went super deep there on AI and automation. And so yeah, in many ways a culmination of um what you know your listeners will probably hear is like maybe a little bit more of a deeper dive on AI, what it looks like um how it's changing things.
(05:56) Um I also uh left uh about two months ago and I'm I started a new company called Formable. We basically are making it easy for businesses to respond to inbound leads way faster. And so for a lot of businesses, um, you have a contact form on your website. When someone fills it out, they usually have a high level of intent. You want to get back to them as fast as you can.
(06:15) Well, we're building simple and easy to use tools that make it easy for businesses to get back to their c potential customers way faster using AI and automation and a better um data collection or form uh experience. So longterm though, we we want to build kind of a a new school uh marketing automation platform, which is just like making it easy for businesses of all shapes and sizes to um market in a way where you're leveraging AI as much as p


Marty's Bent
------------

[![The Great Debasement Trade Is On And Bitcoin Is Positioned Beautifully](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-02-at-9.30.48---AM.png)](https://x.com/elerianm/status/1973755997173989595?ref=tftc.io)

via [Mohamed A. El-Erain](https://x.com/elerianm/status/1973755997173989595?ref=tftc.io)

![The Great Debasement Trade Is On And Bitcoin Is Positioned Beautifully](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/martybent_a_money_printer_printing_in_overdrive_with_its_operat_4bb1ae8f-ba44-43cf-bd38-d3409a54612c.png)

Last week was a good week for bitcoin and the momentum seems to be increasing as this week begins. Today we saw a new all-time high above $126,000. It seems like we're about to hit escape velocity after multiple periods of chopsolidation between $80,000 and $110,000 throughout the year. As is tradition, the engine started revving at the tail end of September and the car left the garage in early October. This Fall should be a fun one.

Why is this happening?

I believe because the world is finally waking up to the fact that governments around the world are objectively bankrupt and their only way out of it is to completely debase their currencies. Last week, JP Morgan analysts revealed that they've been asking their clients why they're allocating to assets like gold and bitcoin to which they replied,"the world is on fire, inflation doesn't seem to be tamed, government deficits dictate more debt creation to paper over the existing debt, the Fed is clearly not independent anymore, fiat currencies are kind of whack when you think about them, and it's obvious that the dollar has fallen out of favor with some of the world's superpowers." The JP Morgan analysts have cleverly coined the trend of funneling your money into neutral reserve scarce assets as the "debasement trade". I'm not going to lie, it has a nice ring to it. It also validates one of the core themes of this newsletter and the discussions we've been having on the podcast for the last eight years.

The year is 2025 and longtime bitcoin skeptics like Mohamed El-Erian are finally waking up to the fact that more people are beginning to recognize this. The world has a problem. The denominators of the measurements of value (fiat currencies) are increasing at an accelerating pace, prices are rising and people are struggling as a result. The expansion of the denominators of value measurement is not only bad for the lower classes who feel the pressures immensely, it is also bad for the upper classes who are experiencing what I refer to as a "wealth mirage". Their stock tickers are moving up and to the right, and it makes them feel good inside. However, it is a mirage because the stock gains are barely keeping up with REAL inflation and are getting absolutely demolished by the returns of hard assets like bitcoin and gold. Luke Gromen made this abundantly clear last week when he charted the "debasement trade" by measuring stock indices and real estate returns in dollars, gold and bitcoin.

[![The Great Debasement Trade Is On And Bitcoin Is Positioned Beautifully](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-06-at-11.50.16---PM.png)](https://x.com/LukeGromen/status/1974184554782220583?ref=tftc.io)

via [Luke Gromen](https://x.com/LukeGromen/status/1974184554782220583?ref=tftc.io)

How long will bitcoin have to continue winning this dominantly before everyone bends the knee and makes a material allocation to bitcoin to avoid the consequences of global debt debasement? I don't think that long. After almost 17-years of beating the memetic drum of "fiat currencies bad", "number go up", "nothing stops this train", "centralized third parties are security holes", and a number of other easily digestible phrases that cut to the core of the world's problem, the people with immense amounts of capital are beginning to wake up. And I have a feeling that the normalization of the "debasement trade" will be the snowflake that causes the avalanche. Recognizing that debasement is the only way out of the debt problem has just been made "cool" in the eyes of some of the most respected institutions in the world. Whether or not that respect is deserved doesn't really matter. What matters is that people, rightly or wrongly, respect these institutions and act based off what they say.

Buckle up.

* * *

### Digital Transformation Must Include Financial Innovation

Luke Thomas argues that companies embracing AI while ignoring Bitcoin for treasury management are living a contradiction. He points out that VCs encourage startups to "embrace technology in every part of the business" except the balance sheet - a glaring inconsistency in the digital transformation narrative. As Luke notes, "digital transformation exists everywhere" and should naturally extend to how companies store value.

> "The balance sheet shouldn't be off limits from technological innovation."- [Luke Thomas](https://x.com/lukethomas14?ref=tftc.io)

I've seen this firsthand at TFTC and through our portfolio at 1031. Companies that truly understand digital transformation recognize Bitcoin as essential infrastructure, not speculation. Luke's observation cuts to the heart of Silicon Valley's selective blindness: you can't claim to be building the future while storing your value in the past.

Check out the [full podcast here](https://youtu.be/YPvmsknIMaU?ref=tftc.io) for more on AI agents replacing white collar jobs, startup disruption patterns, and homeschooling with AI.

* * *

### Headlines of the Day

[Goldman Sees More Institutions in Ethereum](https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1974132964704612728?ref=tftc.io)

[Russia Exchange Seeks End to Retail Bitcoin Ban](https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1974125383080624132?ref=tftc.io)

[Coinbase Samsung Partnership Enables Crypto Access](https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1974101727201902646?ref=tftc.io)

[Treasury Clarifies No Tax on Unrealized Bitcoin Gains](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1973788506603597950?ref=tftc.io)

[JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Upside to $165000 Versus Gold](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1973802568532045989?ref=tftc.io)

[BlackRock ETF Surpasses 777000 Bitcoin Holdings](https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1974074683655155907?ref=tftc.io)

* * *

### Obscura – The World’s Best VPN Built by Bitcoiners

Created by Carl Dong (former Bitcoin Core contributor), unlike other VPNs, it _can’t_ log your activity by design, delivering verifiable privacy you can trust.

[![The Great Debasement Trade Is On And Bitcoin Is Positioned Beautifully](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/08/newsletter-1.jpg)](https://obscura.net/?ref=tftc.io)

[USE CODE TFTC25](https://obscura.net/?ref=tftc.io)

**Outsmarts internet censorship**: works even on the most restrictive Wi-Fi networks where other VPNs fail.
**Pay with bitcoin over Lightning:** better privacy and low fees.
**No email required:** accounts are generated like bitcoin wallets.
**No trade-offs**: browse freely with fast, reliable speeds.

**Exclusive Deal for TFTC Listeners:**
Sign up at [obscura.net](https://obscura.net/?ref=tftc.io) and use code **TFTC25** for **25% off your first 12 months**.

Now available on **macOS, iOS, and WireGuard**, with more platforms coming soon — so your privacy travels with you wherever you go.

* * *

### Bitcoiners: Don’t let nefarious actors steal your sats.

SLNT's patented Faraday backpacks, sleeves, and dry bags secure your hardware wallet or electronics against hackers and solar flares.

Block WiFi, GPS, RFID, and EMPs with our MIL-STD compliant tech. Made in the USA, trusted by 8 military contracts. Protect your wealth, stay untraceable.

Add Faraday protection to your stack here: [https://slnt.com/tftc](https://slnt.com/pages/tftc?ref=tftc.io) & use code _TFTC for 15% off_

[![The Great Debasement Trade Is On And Bitcoin Is Positioned Beautifully](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/09/Reclaim-your-privacy.png)](https://slnt.com/pages/tftc?ref=tftc.io)

[Use Code: TFTC](https://slnt.com/pages/tftc?ref=tftc.io)

* * *

_Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $200M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at_ [ten31.vc/invest](https://ten31.vc/invest?ref=tftc.io)_._

* * *

**Final thought...**

The Phillies are disappointing.

* * *

_Download our free browser extension, **Opportunity Cost**:_ [https://www.opportunitycost.app/](https://www.opportunitycost.app/?ref=tftc.io) start thinking in SATS today.

_Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily:_ [_https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/_](https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/)

_Subscribe to our YouTube channels and follow us on Nostr and X:_

 @media screen and (max-width: 480px) { .mobile-padding { padding: 10px 0 !important; } .social-container { width: 100% !important; max-width: 260px !important; } .social-icon { padding: 0 !important; } .social-icon img { height: 32px !important; width: 32px !important; } .icon-cell { padding: 0 4px !important; } } .mj-column-per-33-333333333333336 { width: 25% !important; max-width: 25%; } .moz-text-html .mj-column-per-33-333333333333336 { width: 25% !important; max-width: 25%; } /\* Helps with rendering in various email clients \*/ body { margin: 0 !important; padding: 0 !important; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100% !important; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100% !important; } img { -ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; } /\* Prevents Gmail from changing the text color in email threads \*/ .im { color: inherit !important; }

[![The Great Debasement Trade Is On And Bitcoin Is Positioned Beautifully](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/03/yt.png)](https://youtube.com/@TFTC?feature=shared&ref=tftc.io)

[![The Great Debasement Trade Is On And Bitcoin Is Positioned Beautifully](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/03/insta.png)](https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/?ref=tftc.io)

[![The Great Debasement Trade Is On And Bitcoin Is Posi


tags: As the bond market unravels, Bitcoin emerges as the new base layer for a deflationary, AI-driven financial system.

content:
Key Takeaways
-------------

![TFTC - Bond Market Shock Sends Bitcoin to $1,000,000 Sooner Than Anyone Expects | Maryland Hodl](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Maryland-Hodl.jpg)

Maryland Hodl argues we’re nearing a “bond revolt” that forces the U.S. to sacrifice the bond market, accelerating a shift from an inflationary, debt-based system to a deflationary, AI-driven economy anchored by Bitcoin as a neutral reserve asset. Stablecoins and Bitcoin-backed “BitBonds” form a sovereign flywheel: Treasury borrows cheaply (1–2%) while investors capture real returns via Bitcoin’s volatility, effectively building a Bitcoin yield curve and repricing the cost of money. As correlations break and social “vibrations” intensify, a bifurcated world emerges (West→Bitcoin, East→gold), with U.S. reindustrialization and front-end duration management signaling a wartime economy. Individually, the advice is simple, buy Bitcoin, because it serves both personal sovereignty and the bridge that may enable a soft landing.

Best Quotes
-----------

“The U.S. government is going to have to sacrifice the bond market.”

“We have an inflationary system heading toward a deflationary one run by AI, with Bitcoin as its monetary base unit.”

“The world doesn’t have a debt problem. We have a collateral problem.”

“BitBonds let the government borrow at 1–2% while investors earn 15–18%.”

“Once the government treats Bitcoin as pristine collateral, it’s game over.”

“Bitcoin’s true value might not be monetary, it could be the return of trust to society.”

“If you want to help accelerate the transition, just buy Bitcoin.”

“Humility is the key. Bitcoin forces you to question everything you’ve been told.”

Conclusion
----------

The conversation presents a coherent transition playbook: embed Bitcoin into sovereign finance via stablecoins and BitBonds to reprice liabilities against absolute scarcity, restore credible collateral, and guide markets toward a deflationary, AI-enabled era. If policy makers embrace this top-down integration, they can manufacture a softer landing, moving duration, stabilizing funding, and catalyzing a reflexive shift where institutions recognize Bitcoin as pristine collateral. The stakes are high, failure risks social fracture, success unlocks an abundance trajectory, but either way, Bitcoin’s role as the base layer of trust and settlement appears inevitable.

Timestamps
----------

0:00 - Intro
0:57 - Systemic vibrations and economic pressure signals
9:14 - Wartime economy and Western Hemisphere focus
13:25 - Energy infrastructure and industrial policy bottlenecks
15:32 - Obscura & Bitkey
17:16 - Monetary breakdown and manipulated Fed data
25:02 - Stablecoins, bitbonds, and the silent coup framework
35:46 - SLNT & Unchained
37:12 - Sovereign flywheel and volatility harvesting mechanics
43:38 - Neutering the Fed and Wall Street adoption tipping point
48:21 - Social cohesion and transition pathways
52:50 - Top-down adoption and Bitcoin's dual purpose
1:01:26 - Humility, trust machine, and questioning everything
1:15:58 - Pilot programs and creative destruction as the only way out

Transcript
----------

(00:00) the US government's going to have to sacrifice the bond market. And he put a timeline of six to nine months from his vantage point. The government can basically get its 1 or 2% borrowing rate, but the investor can get its 15 to 18% and it's going to be close to $3 trillion just to get the grid up to where it needs to be.
(00:19) So, we have an inflationary system that is basically heading towards a deflationary system run by AI with a monetary base unit of Bitcoin. We're going to have bifurcated economic zones where it's going to be western hemisphere versus eastern. If you look at what Sailor's doing, he's developing a Bitcoin yield curve. seems like this would be the perfect entity to essentially do like a bit bond pilot.
(00:37) Imagine when Wall Street with the deepest capital market starts doing the same thing, structuring it with real estate, similar to what you've been talking about or what Grant Cardone is talking about. The world doesn't have a debt problem. We have a collateral problem. What if ultimately Bitcoin was established to start bringing trust back to government and we go into kind of an age of abundance? Basically, all marginal costs are driven to zero because of AI and advancements in AI.
(00:58) Marilyn Hutddle, the the vibration feels off. Certainly does. Certainly does, doesn't it, M? It does. That's where uh that's where we were just talking about. I think we start here, the vibration feeling off. This is sort of a a grown theme. I've seen you tweet about um Dark Side, who was on the show earlier this summer, tweet about uh let's jump into that.
(01:25) is this idea of systemic vibrations as a leading indicator for potential turmoil on the horizon. Yeah. And you a lot of the the work I I've been doing is I'm a a listener. So for the last 5 years since I kind of stumbled into this space I I listen um I watch podcast. I combing Twitter.
(01:53) Um, I'm in spaces listening just to different ideas and seeing where things are breaking down at. You know, a couple of the people that I really like to follow as of late. Um, who I think has been pretty much spot on for years is Luke Gorman, right? and his most recent um podcast that he did. Basically, he started alluded to, you know, from his vantage point, it looks like the the system's breaking down and there's going to be a bond revolt and essentially the US government's going to have to sacrifice the bond market um for a variety of different reasons.
(02:22) And he put a uh a timeline of 6 to9 months from his vantage point, right? you have economic and geopolitical risks that are basically growing in the market and it's going to hit a head at some point. Um, you know, and then you you take Jack Mer's uh Monday podcast that he just recently released, right? He dives into the fact that austerity doesn't work. Um, you know, we're seeing the examples of that in Argentina currently.
(02:54) Um if you extrapolate further and take that into the United States like we're seeing a continuation of all these efforts um that are basically fruitless and the shaping that I put out this week was basically that the government in my opinion Bitcoin's already won right um the government is out of options and that the industrial system that we have grown going to basically embrace over the last since the 1900s.
(03:27) You know, GDP is we have an inflationary system that is basically heading towards a deflationary system run by AI with a monetary base unit uh of Bitcoin. Um which in my opinion is the only monetary asset that can work in a system of deflation. So what we're seeing is these systemic fractures that are happening across society and you can see it even socially right with the cultural wars.
(03:56) Um I think that they they're becoming more frequent which you can essentially equate back to the vibration that you're discussing about. Um and it's becoming more noticeable by even the everyday individual. Right. So, I think society as a whole is starting to wake up to the idea that something's wrong. The financial markets certainly are.
(04:18) I mean, correlations are breaking down across the board. Um, historical norms that have basically been in place for um decades, even generations are no longer holding up. Um, you know, I think we have a a potentially a real crisis on our hands. And you know, I spend a lot of time thinking um I think you have young kids. I have a a three-year-old.
(04:45) And as a father during this stage, early child development, um you start thinking more about what the future's going to hold for your child. So, a lot of my work and effort has been basically focused around a transition, right? What is the transition going to look like from an inflationary system to a deflationary system? How do we avoid all the issues with the for turning and you know what are the issues like the death and destruction, right? Entering into another World War II scenario or before that a civil war and before that
(05:16) the revolutionary war, right? And but now we're in a at a global scale with different types of weapons, right? That can ultimately end society. So my thought process has been I look at Bitcoin as a tool for self- sovereignty but also a tool to be utilized potentially or designed to help us transition through this system.
(05:40) But to your point, the vibrations are getting um more violent and um I think they're becoming undeniable by even the average person across the board. Yeah. Yeah, I mean outside of the culture wars and the social incohesion which seems obvious. I think one sort of anecdotal data point or data points that I've really leaned on over the last two three years specifically are the um the selfie videos of people sitting in their cars complaining about a myriad of different things whether it's the grocery bill, health insurance,
(06:18) car insurance, the inability to afford a house in the first place. I mean, those are accelerating and who knows if they're just sort of attentiongrabbing things that people are trying to leverage on TikTok to get sympathy or feel like their voice is being heard or get some attention. But I I feel like it's very clear that I I do think there's signal there in the sense that people are really feeling the the burden of the the economic pressure uh and then this gap between the rich and the poor accelerating. Um, but in in terms of
(06:54) systemic vibrations like within the system, what specifically are you looking at? I mean, you mentioned Mers earlier this week talking about austerity doesn't work in the context of Argentina. Obviously, the Treasury just opened up a swap line with them for $50 billion um to sort of lessen the blow, the austerity that they've implemented throughout the country over the last few years.
(07:2


tags: James Check says Bitcoin’s consolidation is over and $150K is next as institutional demand reshapes the market.

content:
Key Takeaways
-------------

![TFTC - Market Expert Reveals How Much Bitcoin You Need to Retire! $150K Coming Soon | James Check](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/James-Check--1-.jpg)

James Check argues that Bitcoin has entered a new era of maturity defined by institutional dominance, evolving derivatives markets, and a powerful “buy-side floor” forming around $95K–$110K. He believes Bitcoin’s realized cap surpassing $1 trillion signals unprecedented capital inflows, with ETFs and IBIT options marking a permanent market structure shift. The “chopsolidation” of 2025, months of sideways trading around $110K, has built a multi-trillion-dollar base that positions Bitcoin for a sustained move toward $150K and potentially a $3T market cap. Long-term holders are still selling in waves, but buyers, ETFs, corporations, and high-net-worth individuals, are absorbing supply and holding firm. Meanwhile, retail participation is shrinking, and institutions now drive price discovery. Check views gold as Bitcoin’s roadmap in a global “debasement trade,” with fiat currencies and bonds collapsing in real terms. He warns that external shocks, such as an AI bubble burst, could slow Bitcoin’s ascent, but overall sees the market entering a more volatile, euphoric phase driven by derivatives, liquidity, and demand for hard assets.

Best Quotes
-----------

“Bitcoiners are sitting on $1.5 trillion of unrealized profit, half a trillion more than Berkshire Hathaway’s entire market cap.”

“There’s something wrong with the denominator. It’s all one trade now.”

“Gold smells out the debasement first, Bitcoin follows with force.”

“We’re not seeing people exit because Bitcoin’s overvalued; we’re seeing people take profit while buyers vault it away. That’s new.”

“IBIT options overtaking Deribit this fast is mind-blowing, this is the biggest shift since ETFs went live.”

“Retail doesn’t move the needle anymore. The sovereign and institutional bid now defines the cycle.”

“We’ve proved a $2T base, now we’re building toward $3T. The era of chopsolidation is ending.”

“You don’t want dumb retail to show up, that’s when it’s over.”

“This time is actually different, you can see it in the volatility profile and the maturity of the bid side.”

“Stay humble and stack sats, the goal is to understand why Bitcoin moves, not to chase it.”

Conclusion
----------

Check concludes that Bitcoin’s bull market is entering its euphoric stage, supported by deep institutional liquidity, derivative expansion, and a structural shift in market psychology. The $95K–$110K range now serves as Bitcoin’s “HODL wall,” signaling resilience even through major selloffs. As gold leads the “debasement trade,” Bitcoin is positioned to follow, reflecting growing recognition among investors that fiat is failing as a denominator of value. While AI and macro risks could briefly unsettle markets, the long-term trajectory is clear: Bitcoin has crossed the Rubicon from speculation to systemic adoption. Check’s final message is measured optimism, embrace the volatility, stay flexible, and don’t mistake noise for signal in a market that’s still “growing up.”

Timestamps
----------

0:00 - Intro
1:20 - The Debasement Trade is here
7:00 - Businesses stacking sats
10:18 - James’s report and chopsolidation
15:40 - Bitkey & Crowdhealth
17:50 - Realized volatility
20:48 - Debasement goes mainstream
23:56 - Fiat in gold terms
27:01 - Are people waking up?
30:10 - AI boom
38:00 - SLNT & Unchained
39:26 - Gold ripping
50:32 - On-chain levels
58:44 - Retail doesn’t have the power this cycle
1:12:33 - Metrics to ignore

Transcript
----------

(00:00) The era of chop consolidation as we know it is probably going to take a back seat because I think we now enter the proper euphoria phase. The fact that we're still pushing up to 125. Honestly, the market is now saying I want higher. You could be at 150 by the end of the week. People who are coming in now, the traders, the retirement accounts, they just see the IBIT chart.
(00:16) It's in a bull market. It goes up only. Bitcoin has this very, very unique characteristic where it lulls everyone to sleep and then it rips. Gold, I think, tells us the future. It's where we're going when all is said and done. It smells out the debasement first months in advance. Bitcoin's at 125 grand. It's punching all-time highs and I just flick through all the treasury company charts.
(00:33) Down 85, down 95. Some of them are punching new lows. The least discussed, but I think most important thing since the ETFs, there's a market structure shift has been these IBIT options. This time is actually different and you can see it in this chart. It's just looking at all the major fiat currencies.
(00:49) They're all down 40 to 60% in gold terms and Bitcoin is up 50 to 80% more than that. Now, the gold market going up is just raising the ceiling for where Bitcoin's going. Vast majority of these firms had like 0.1% allocated to Bitcoin. Tens to hundreds of millions of dollars. Tiny portfolio allocation. Massive dollars. What happens if they go to 0.
(01:05) 002 the most bullish metric of all time in Bitcoin? The realized cap. It just crossed a trillion dollars. I bit as of today just crossed over 58% of the overall AUM dominance. Blows into all the ETFs except IBIT are flat and IBIT is just tearing away. James, the debasement trade is on. New alltime highs are here. It's all one trade, mate. It's all one trade. There's something wrong with the denominator. It really is.
(01:33) It really is. And people don't realize it yet. It's fascinating, right? And like I've said this before, I think even on this podcast, it's amazing to me that like bond traders, I love Luke Gman's line, is like they have to lull them to sleep and just like slowlyize the bond market.
(01:51) they have to just like pretend that they're going to try and solve this problem. Don't worry, just hold these bonds. We're going to mandate these ones or no, it's okay. We're going to try and get yields down, which means bond prices up. And it's like, guys, it's just they're they're coins. They really are. And this to the skeptics out there, the Bitcoin skeptics, it is astonishing.
(02:09) I think uh Mitchell Hodddle, he had this tweet from earlier today. I'll I'll pull it up because I thought it was a good one. uh new all-time highs today and people for better or for worse still believe Bitcoin is a fad. Um not something to pay attention to, but if I mean we've talked about this many times I think how far Bitcoin has come in only a little under 17 years is is miraculous and it shows here like you we'll look back on Bitcoin's monetization and marvel at how fast it happened on the zoomed out timeline of humanity. Bitcoin's takeover happened virtually instantaneously. Truly a zero to one
(02:46) moment. Totally. Um, so here's an interesting thought that I'd be curious to get your ideas on. I don't know about you, man. I'm certainly observing that Bitcoin has become desensitized to it. So there's almost this bifocation of how people are observing and and analyzing and studying Bitcoin.
(03:05) People who are coming in now, let's call them the traders, the retirement accounts. Like granted, there's still a small chunk of the overall demand. um I would estimate something like 20 odd percent or thereabouts. They're coming in and going like they just see the IBIT chart. It's in a bull market. It goes up only.
(03:21) What's not to like? And then people, all the Bitcoiners who've been around through all the high octane phases looking at this thing being like, "Oh god, this cycle sucks. It's so slow. So boring." You've got this real interesting dichotomy where it's like it is monetizing at an incredible rate. Think about some of the headlines that we see these days.
(03:41) If you told yourself that back in 2020, back in 2018 for you back in 2013, 144, 15, you wouldn't believe it, right? You just actually couldn't believe it was happening and now we're so desensitized to it. There's like this bifocation of the market. What are your thoughts on that? I think Bitcoin bores people to death. It This is what Bitcoin does.
(04:00) It ls people into a state of complacency and uh uncomfortability where they're not happy that it's not reaching new alltime highs every day. But again, it's insane looking at the charts now. We're at $2.5 trillion market cap and thinking back to our conversation earlier this year where Bitcoin had established itself as a $2 trillion asset and it's already added 25% more in market cap since then.
(04:27) And it's like what do you what do you people want? What more do you want? It's up almost 100% in over the last one year. It's up 32.6% year-to date. five years up over a thousand percent like it is monetizing in real time. But you were alluding to some things that have manifested over the course of this year that may have some longtime Bitcoiners but hurt because they made the wrong decision. Oh yeah, the old treasury company trade.
(04:50) This I mean this is one of those things that like I I love it. Like all things I love the gray zone. The gray zone is where I find it interesting. Um and you know you look at some of the comments I get on Twitter. I was, you know, I poked fun of them on Twitter saying, you know, Bitcoin's at 125 grand. It's punching alltime highs. And I just flick through all the Treasury company charts. Down 60, down 70, down 85, down 95.
(05:12) It's like some of them are punching new lows as Bitcoin is ripping to new alltime highs. You just look at this thing like something is going on here, right? That the market is in my view, like my real high level view, I've had this line that MNAV gravity is towards one.
(05:32) It appears to be that MNAV gravity is indeed towards one that by the way gravity just means that's the that's the acceleration. That's where it wants to go. There are a handful of these companies that


Marty's Bent
------------

[![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-08-at-7.59.37---PM.png)](https://x.com/milessuter/status/1975969260024496525?ref=tftc.io)

via [Miles Suter](https://x.com/milessuter/status/1975969260024496525?ref=tftc.io)

![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/martybent_a_happy_customer_in_a_coffee_shop_paying_via_QR_code__f1a565d0-f08b-41c3-8461-3b160331c418.png)

In 2018 Cash App enabled their users to easily buy and sell bitcoin within the popular consumer finance app. At the time this was a massive validation and endorsement for bitcoin when it was less than a decade old. Having the backing and buy-in from a mainstream fintech player like Block (Square, at the time) was a signal to the world that bitcoin is something to take seriously. Jack Dorsey and team sticking their necks out to recognize bitcoin as a legitimate value added product to their suite will be recognized as a pivotal point in bitcoin's history.

It's been more than seven years since Cash App launched buy/sell bitcoin and Block has launched:

*   Spiral - A non-profit organization dedicated to supporting open-source bitcoin development, with a heavy focus on the lightning network.
*   Bitkey - A hardware wallet that leverages multi-sig to create an easy was for bitcoin users to self-custody their bitcoin with some hand holding.
*   Proto - A mining company dedicated to bringing open mining hardware and management software to compete with incumbents like Bitmain and MicroBT. The Proto team launched the Rig in August; a modular bitcoin mining machine that comes with a sleek fleet management software system.

To say the least, Block really cares about pushing bitcoin forward and has backed that up with heavy investments in businesses that support different parts of the bitcoin market.

With all of that being said, the number one question Block has been asked since they unleashed bitcoin to Cash App users seven years ago is, "Wen bitcoin in Square terminals?!"

Well, as of today, the wait is officially over. Earlier this afternoon, Square announced that all of their merchants will immediately be able to convert a portion of their card sales to bitcoin, buy/sell/hold/withdraw bitcoin via their business portals and on November 10th they will also be able to accept bitcoin via Square terminals as well.

![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-08-at-9.26.36---PM.png)

via [Square](https://squareup.com/us/en/bitcoin?ref=tftc.io)

![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-08-at-9.26.44---PM.png)

via [Square](https://squareup.com/us/en/bitcoin?ref=tftc.io)

![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-08-at-9.26.50---PM.png)

via [Square](https://squareup.com/us/en/bitcoin?ref=tftc.io)

This. This right here is massive. As it stands today, Square supports over 4,000,000 merchants across the United States and every single one of them will be able to log into their Square business accounts tomorrow and decide to automatically convert a portion of their cash flow into bitcoin. If 10% of their US customer base enables this feature that will produce 400,000 new small, medium and large businesses that are using bitcoin as a treasury asset that enables them to help grow their businesses. Don't take it from me, take it from Glenn Charles, who has been part of Square's beta test of this product for the last two years.

![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-08-at-10.07.04---PM.png)

via [Glenn Charles](https://x.com/GlennCharlesPh1/status/1976039946961158401?ref=tftc.io)

This is the type of "corporate" bitcoin adoption you love to see. Bitcoin is an asset that can help small businesses in ways that most people cannot even fathom. I know from experience, this small (but mighty) media company has benefited massively from our bitcoin treasury, our ability to accept bitcoin for payment and our ability to pay employees and contractors in bitcoin. Opening this up to 4,000,000 businesses overnight cannot be overstated. Most importantly because Square is making bitcoin a first-class citizen throughout the experience, where other payment processors and point-of-sale systems make it hard for their customers to integrate bitcoin throughout the business stack.

Once bitcoin payments are enabled in a little over a month merchants will be able to receive bitcoin and either convert it immediately to cash or hold it in bitcoin. Bitcoiners who live on a bitcoin standard will be able to spend their sats at many more merchants in meat space. THE bitcoin standard becomes more tangible.

[![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-08-at-10.28.00---PM.png)](https://x.com/owenbjennings/status/1976035183767015909?ref=tftc.io)

via [OBJ](https://x.com/owenbjennings/status/1976035183767015909?ref=tftc.io)

The next thing to check off the list is getting a de minimis tax exemption for bitcoin payments. It looks like Jack is putting the pressure on.

[![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-08-at-10.26.25---PM.png)](https://x.com/jack/status/1976056646138036581?ref=tftc.io)

via [jack](https://x.com/jack/status/1976056646138036581?ref=tftc.io)

* * *

### Chop-Solidation Market Dynamics: Insights into Bitcoin's 2025 Market

In our latest episode, we delved into the current state of the Bitcoin market for 2025, which has been marked by a phase of consolidation with notably low volatility. This 'chop-solidation' phase, as my guest James Check described, suggests a market that is maturing and becoming more sophisticated. The discussion highlighted how this period of stability might be setting the stage for a significant future movement in the market, indicating a strategic patience among investors.

> The market is showing signs of a sophisticated structure, preparing for something big. - [James Check](https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_?ref=tftc.io)

This optimistic outlook was shared by both myself and James, suggesting that the current market dynamics could lead to substantial opportunities for those who remain patient and vigilant. The low volatility phase is not just a lull but potentially a precursor to a major shift, making this an exciting time for Bitcoin enthusiasts and investors alike.

Check out the [full podcast here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uZW0j-sW6w&feature=youtu.be&ref=tftc.io) for more with one of the most accurate price prediction and market structure experts we have on the show.

* * *

### Headlines of the Day

[Tokyo firm invests $3.3M in Bitcoin](https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1975931437133013140?ref=tftc.io)

[Bitcoin payments via WhatsApp demoed](https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1975921235088294326?ref=tftc.io)

[Bitcoin addresses over 100 BTC hit ATH](https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1975942718821216578?ref=tftc.io)

[Square introduces zero-fee Bitcoin wallet](https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1975921191769555166?ref=tftc.io)

[Loosening conditions fuel Bitcoin bull run](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1975960945559257315?ref=tftc.io)

[Bitcoin's floor at $95k, target $150k](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1975956145073172503?ref=tftc.io)

* * *

[![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/D1.png)](https://unchnd.co/4nulnb8?ref=tftc.io)

[Download here](https://unchnd.co/4nulnb8?ref=tftc.io)

You know the story of bitcoin’s market cycles... euphoric blow-offs, brutal crashes. _Maybe not anymore_. [**The Bitcoin Checkpoint**](https://unchnd.co/4nulnb8?ref=tftc.io) takes a deep look at how the 2023–2025 cycle has rewritten market structure and why these changes could be permanent.

Inside, you’ll find analysis of record-low volatility, ETF flows absorbing billions monthly, and why long-term holders remain in control with $1.3T in unrealized profit. Plus, download now for automatic access to the event where James Check took a deep dive into the report himself.

* * *

### Bitcoiners: Don’t let nefarious actors steal your sats.

SLNT's patented Faraday backpacks, sleeves, and dry bags secure your hardware wallet or electronics against hackers and solar flares.

Block WiFi, GPS, RFID, and EMPs with our MIL-STD compliant tech. Made in the USA, trusted by 8 military contracts. Protect your wealth, stay untraceable.

Add Faraday protection to your stack here: [https://slnt.com/tftc](https://slnt.com/pages/tftc?ref=tftc.io) & use code _TFTC for 15% off_

[![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/09/Reclaim-your-privacy.png)](https://slnt.com/pages/tftc?ref=tftc.io)

[Use Code: TFTC](https://slnt.com/pages/tftc?ref=tftc.io)

* * *

### Obscura – The World’s Best VPN Built by Bitcoiners

Created by Carl Dong (former Bitcoin Core contributor), unlike other VPNs, it _can’t_ log your activity by design, delivering verifiable privacy you can trust.

[![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/08/newsletter-1.jpg)](https://obscura.net/?ref=tftc.io)

[USE CODE TFTC25](https://obscura.net/?ref=tftc.io)

**Outsmarts internet censorship**: works even on the most restrictive Wi-Fi networks where other VPNs fail.
**Pay with bitcoin o


Marty's Bent
------------

> "If you want to know what any society really believes in, just look at how they design their sewers."

![We Can All Do Better](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/martybent_a_sculpture_of_leonardo_da_vinci_thinking_intently_in_1c665d85-fbc8-4168-93df-4c4efb17edaa.png)

Life in 2025 is a double edged sword. Most humans, at least those of us with an internet connection, have access to a wealth of knowledge that our ancestors could have never comprehended.

Thinking about cooking a specific dish you've never prepared? Type the name of the dish into Google or your preferred LLM and BAM!, you'll have a slew of tips, links and videos to choose from to learn how to cook the dish properly.

Headed on a trip to the West Coast from Philadelphia as the Autumn winds begin to shuffle cool air into your neck of the woods and you're not quite sure what the weather is going to be like when you land? "Hey Siri, what's the weather in Monterey looking like this weekend?"

Trying to settle an argument with a friend about who won the NBA Finals MVP in 2007? "Hey Siri,..."

Finding the solutions to our problems has become more convenient than ever. This relative convenience makes us feel _elite_. It gives us a false sense of proximity to omniscience. We don't really know any of these things off the top our heads, but they're readily accessible with simple queries. As a result we've become hubristic and complacent, which has conditioned us to accept a slow, but constant degradation of quality in the things that our ancestors worked hard to make interesting and inspiring.

Most noticeably, in the urban landscapes through which we wander when we step back from our desks and lift our heads away from the dull, yet addictive beam of blue light that emanates from our phones. Our dependence on this convenience has created a lapse in attention to detail that has made a lot of our physical and digital landscape incredibly uninteresting and completely lacking of character.

It manifests in the stale design of buildings, bridges, landing pages, and user interfaces. All have become somewhat uniform. With their only differences being in subtle tweaks in colorways, button positions, height and width, and different variations of minimalism, among other things.

What does this say about us?

If you watch the short film above from Sheehan Quirke, you'll come to find that he believes it says a lot about what we believe in as a society. If we're unwilling to spend the extra time, effort and de minimis amount of money to make our world a bit more interesting, do we really hold ourselves in a high regard? Is what we're doing with this allotted portion of time on this planet really worth anything? Will we hand anything other than some instructions on how to do certain things that are necessary to simply subsist in the hopes that our progeny continue subsisting? Or will we aim to inspire?

Not only that, but inspire in a way that is impossible to ignore for generations to come. Will we leave anything behind that people will be able to point at in one hundred years and find interesting, inspiring, and, most importantly, proud to be descendants of the society and culture that built it?

If I'm being honest, there aren't many things I can think of that have been built in my lifetime that would fit this mold. I've seen many from centuries past torn down. Penn Station as it was originally built in 1910, [Whitemarsh Hall](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitemarsh_Hall?ref=tftc.io) outside of Philadelphia, the [Old Cincinnati Public Library](https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/17xg2ej/the_old_cincinnati_public_library_before_it_was/?ref=tftc.io), and countless other buildings, monuments, bridges and simple decorative details on seemingly inconsequential everyday parts of our lives like doors, archways, gardens and driveways.

Will the sprawling subdivisions, cookie cutter multi-family units, soulless libraries, plastic playgrounds, bionic light posts and bland strip malls that litter this country leave our grandchildren with a sense of awe and inspiration?

No, of course they won't.

What does it say that the continued development of these uninspiring high velocity trash fiat economy manifestations have become a key focus of our economy?

Real estate is too expensive and interest rates are too high. "Build more cheap shit boxes!"

My CRE firm is on it's fourth fund and needs to continue spitting out a portfolio of 5-cap multi-use properties in gentrified neighborhoods located in second-tier cities with populations on the rise. "Funnel the money in from the pension funds looking to under perform the real rate of inflation and call the contractor who has a great deal on the plastic siding, fake wood and cheap doors from China."

It's all shit.

And as I was watching Sheehan's incredible short film that really cuts to the core of why building beautiful things is worthwhile, fulfilling, dignified and inspirational, I couldn't help but think, "Fiat ruins everything."

Fix the money, fix the world.

* * *

### The Federal Reserve and Treasury Have Been "Backed into a Corner" (System Breaking Down)

Jeremiah Albright laid out a compelling case that the Federal Reserve and Treasury have been systematically cornered by their own manipulated data and failed policies. He pointed to bond market correlations breaking down across historical norms, with Fed rate cuts and increases now producing the opposite bond market reactions than they should. The government's shift of bond duration from the long-end to the front-end signals acute stress in the system. Albright referenced Luke Gromen's warning of a potential bond revolt within six to nine months, emphasizing that correlations that held for decades are simply no longer functional.

> "The Fed has essentially been, in my opinion, neutralized. It's not functional anymore to the way that it historically should be." - [Jeremiah Albright](https://x.com/HodlMaryland?ref=tftc.io)

I highlighted Porter Stansberry's analysis showing how distorted the situation has become. Using the Taylor Rule with official CPI, the Fed funds rate should be 4.75%. However, using actual inflation around 15%, that rate should be 17.5%. This massive mispricing of risk and money has made it impossible for the Fed to implement effective policy. Traditional economics is breaking down before our eyes.

Check out the [full podcast here](https://youtu.be/4uZW0j-sW6w?ref=tftc.io) for more on BitBonds, stablecoins as yield curve control, and the coming AI economic transition.

* * *

### Headlines of the Day

[Nvidia Eyes $2B Stake in xAI](https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1975707397323923776?ref=tftc.io)

[SEC Plans Crypto Innovation Exemption](https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1975673531892371938?ref=tftc.io)

[Bitcoin ETFs Surpass $7.5B Volume](https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1975668202446463335?ref=tftc.io)

[BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Hits $5.64B](https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1975667458326642842?ref=tftc.io)

[Strike Lending Goes Live in Europe](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1975633288867029066?ref=tftc.io)

[Treasury Fed Merge Ushers Bitcoin Era](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1975668847429787891?ref=tftc.io)

* * *

[![We Can All Do Better](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/D1.png)](https://unchnd.co/4nulnb8?ref=tftc.io)

[Download here](https://unchnd.co/4nulnb8?ref=tftc.io)

You know the story of bitcoin’s market cycles... euphoric blow-offs, brutal crashes. _Maybe not anymore_. [**The Bitcoin Checkpoint**](https://unchnd.co/4nulnb8?ref=tftc.io) takes a deep look at how the 2023–2025 cycle has rewritten market structure and why these changes could be permanent.

Inside, you’ll find analysis of record-low volatility, ETF flows absorbing billions monthly, and why long-term holders remain in control with $1.3T in unrealized profit. Plus, download now for automatic access to the event where James Check took a deep dive into the report himself.

* * *

### Bitcoiners: Don’t let nefarious actors steal your sats.

SLNT's patented Faraday backpacks, sleeves, and dry bags secure your hardware wallet or electronics against hackers and solar flares.

Block WiFi, GPS, RFID, and EMPs with our MIL-STD compliant tech. Made in the USA, trusted by 8 military contracts. Protect your wealth, stay untraceable.

Add Faraday protection to your stack here: [https://slnt.com/tftc](https://slnt.com/pages/tftc?ref=tftc.io) & use code _TFTC for 15% off_

[![We Can All Do Better](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/09/Reclaim-your-privacy.png)](https://slnt.com/pages/tftc?ref=tftc.io)

[Use Code: TFTC](https://slnt.com/pages/tftc?ref=tftc.io)

* * *

### Obscura – The World’s Best VPN Built by Bitcoiners

Created by Carl Dong (former Bitcoin Core contributor), unlike other VPNs, it _can’t_ log your activity by design, delivering verifiable privacy you can trust.

[![We Can All Do Better](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/08/newsletter-1.jpg)](https://obscura.net/?ref=tftc.io)

[USE CODE TFTC25](https://obscura.net/?ref=tftc.io)

**Outsmarts internet censorship**: works even on the most restrictive Wi-Fi networks where other VPNs fail.
**Pay with bitcoin over Lightning:** better privacy and low fees.
**No email required:** accounts are generated like bitcoin wallets.
**No trade-offs**: browse freely with fast, reliable speeds.

**Exclusive Deal for TFTC Listeners:**
Sign up at [obscura.net](https://obscura.net/?ref=tftc.io) and use code **TFTC25** for **25% off your first 12 months**.

Now available on **macOS, iOS, and WireGuard**, with more platforms coming soon — so your privacy travels with you wherever you go.

* * *

_Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $200M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at_ [ten31.vc/invest](https://ten31.vc/invest?ref=tftc.io)_._

* * *

**Final thought...**

Many deep dive


Alive and kicking