tags: Jeff Walton shows how Bitcoin treasury firms like Strive are disrupting the $300T fixed-income market with Bitcoin-backed credit instruments.

content:
Key Takeaways
-------------

![TFTC - Market Insider: "Bitcoin Just Disrupted a $300 Trillion Fixed Income Market" | Jeff Walton](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/09/Jeff-Walton.jpg)

Bitcoin treasury companies are using structured finance to push Bitcoin into the heart of capital markets, especially the $300T fixed-income arena, by issuing instruments like perpetual preferreds and convertibles that offer higher yields, heavy over-collateralization, and 24/7 mark-to-risk transparency. Jeff Walton maps his move from reinsurance to Strive to show how credit/risk skills translate directly, highlighting their cashless Semler acquisition as a blueprint for turning “zombie” firms into credit-improved, Bitcoin-backed platforms that access larger capital pools. He argues the real KPI is “Bitcoin per share,” that we’re still early, and that equity appetite is mixed while debt markets are already open. The “paper Bitcoin summer” critique is dismissed as short-term churn; the longer arc is risk repricing as capital gravitates to superior collateral and liquidity. Framed this way, Bitcoin isn’t being captured by Wall Street, Bitcoin is quietly recoding financial infrastructure.

Best Quotes
-----------

*   “The fixed income market is a $300 trillion pool of capital. If you want to make the biggest splash in Bitcoin, you disrupt the fixed income market.”
*   “Every single company on the planet will eventually be holding Bitcoin on the balance sheet.”
*   “Semler was a self-proclaimed zombie company, then they started buying Bitcoin and accumulated over $500 million, suddenly they had optionality and downside protection.”
*   “Risk is mispriced globally. Most equities are leveraged to uncertain future cash flows. Bitcoin treasury companies are leveragingthe to money they already have.”
*   “Bitcoin isn’t being taken over by the suits, Bitcoin is taking over financial infrastructure.”
*   “Strategy has acquired 638,000 Bitcoin while CrowdStrike has effectively lost 18,000 in Bitcoin terms, yet CrowdStrike trades at a higher market cap.”

Conclusion
----------

This conversation frames Bitcoin treasury companies as the next frontier of financial innovation. Walton views them as both a lifeline for struggling firms and a disruptive force in the largest capital pools on earth. While skeptics point to volatility or “paper Bitcoin” suppression, the bigger picture is the gradual integration of Bitcoin-backed credit into global markets, creating new liquidity dynamics and repricing risk across the financial system. As Walton notes, the hated nature of this trade is precisely why it may deliver outsized returns: it challenges entrenched assumptions about equity, debt, and value storage. Ultimately, this episode underscores that Bitcoin’s destiny is not just as money, but as the backbone of a reconstructed global financial architecture.

Timestamps
----------

0:00 - Intro
1:08 - Jeff at Strive
5:36 - STRK
9:46 - Semler deal structure
13:28 - Paper bitcoin summer
17:47 - Obscura & SLNT
20:06 - Institutional appetite
23:26 - Critical treasury mass affecting long term price
27:53 - What are the products providing?
32:29 - STRC and Fed/Treasury
35:00 - Bitkey & Unchained
36:33 - Reinsurance history
46:46 - Opportunity Cost
47:30 - Soft landing, disrupting fixed income
51:16 - Operating business examples
57:53 - Companies missing out, S&P comparison
1:04:41 - What does S&P inclusion mean?

Transcript
----------

(00:00) The fixed income market is a $300 trillion pool of capital. If you want to make the biggest splash in Bitcoin, you disrupt the fixed income market. MSDR has amplified Bitcoin. This is a monumental idea. Every single company on the planet will eventually be holding Bitcoin on the balance sheet. Is incredibly early days.
(00:19) Us at Strive, we're aiming to be the Metaplanet of the United States. If you look at the Bitcoin rating, the collateralization rating actually improves by over 200% on the convertible bond when you combine the two entities and the the Bitcoin back balance sheet. Similar, they were a self-proclaimed zombie company and then they started buying Bitcoin and ended up accumulating over $500 million of Bitcoin.
(00:38) Paper Bitcoin Summer, these companies are buying Bitcoin and the price isn't going up. So, there's going to be some price suppression. STRC is a effectively like a high yield savings account. What they created is effectively a refinancing mechanism that can refinance daily. Crowd strike in Bitcoin terms. They've lost 18,000 Bitcoin.
(00:56) In that same time horizon, Strategy has acquired and accumulated 638,000 Bitcoin. So many people don't understand Bitcoin in the traditional financial world. \[Music\] Jeff Walton, welcome back to the show. Thank you. Happy to be here. A lot has changed since the last time you were here. It was eight months ago.
(01:22) And I I believe if I recall correctly, you were telling me off air that you were about to leave your reinsurance business to jump full uh full speed ahead into the Bitcoin world, the Bitcoin treasury world. Um it's appropo that we're meeting here September 23rd. Yesterday, September 22nd, you tweeted out, "Eight months ago, I was selling reinsurance this weekend.
(01:41) and the entire Strive team worked to tirelessly worked tirelessly to acquire a company that holds 5,021 Bitcoin in a cashless transaction that will be in M&A case studies for years to come. The world is changing fast. You can just do things. You're doing things. I'm doing things. Let's talk about uh the journey from January 29th when we published the last recording um of us meeting to discuss Bitcoin treasury strategies and today a lot has changed for you personally.
(02:06) Yeah, a lot has changed for me personally. Yeah, I was previously selling reinsurance. So, I was a reinsurance broker selling insurance to insurance companies, which a lot of people think this is an insurance role, but it was really a capital markets role.
(02:25) I was uh effectively selling volatility of insurance company balance sheets to hedge funds and and capital providers across the globe. So there was a a very clear opportunity and synergy for me to focus on what was happening in the Bitcoin ecosystem in the Bitcoin world because it's effectively capital markets transactions working with investors creating structured products uh volatility tranches thinking about risk and risk profiles from a probabilistic framework.
(02:52) Literally every single thing that I was doing in the reinsurance world was applicable to the what what was happening here in the Bitcoin world. It's very funny. When I when I left my job in reinsurance, I told them I wasn't doing anything.
(03:11) I was taking a break and they're like, "What are you talking about? What what do you mean? What do you mean you're not doing anything?" I'm like, "I'm focused on Bitcoin. I don't know. I don't know what yet. I don't know what I'm going to do, but I need to spend my time and energy in this area to figure out what's what's next for me. So, yeah, it was a bit of a confusion. They were bewildered.
(03:33) Let's just let's just say they were bewildered when I when I told them I was entering the space. And so, fast forward to where we are today. Uh, I was exploring different opportunities in the market and just continuing to have conversations, going to different events. Uh, in conversations with Matt and the Strive team, they had added me to the independent board um, to help grow their future Bitcoin treasury company.
(03:58) This was last May when they announced the uh, the reverse merger transaction that they were entering in. And after further conversations, there became a very clear opportunity for me to work in a role at Strive and have some synergy and be able to spend my energy in an appropriate place. So had a ton of conversations with them, their their team and Matt and understanding like what is this opportunity here and is this where I where I want to uh want to hitch myself to to this horse, right? And ultimately, this was exactly what I was looking to do is I wanted to work within a company and buy as much Bitcoin as humanly
(04:39) possible, structure capital markets transactions, work with investors, continue with education within the marketplace, think about risk and structured credit and finance and volatility. And this became a very apparent uh win for me personally. And the the alternative is, you know, thinking about trying to go do some of this stuff on your own.
(05:07) And the reality of building a Bitcoin treasury is really difficult and you need a strong team. Like for example, we just went through this M&A transaction and and folks were working all day every day overnight. And we've got a team of I don't know 10 10 12 people that were touching different pieces of this. And that's really hard to build from scratch.
(05:30) And joining a company that was already focused and putting energy in this direction was really the lowest hanging fruit, like the best the best place to park my time and energy. Yeah. Again, it's uh it's been fun watching um from the sidelines you've been doing this and I think you're following your dreams to be a little corny, but really going after something that uh that you're passionate about.
(05:52) I I love to see people doing things that they're passionate about. And I think the last time we spoke, obviously the conversation was focused heavily on strategy. I believe they had just launched uh strike um that preferred offering uh and obviously since then they've issued more preferreds uh and we we can get into that. But I think really jumping off the conversation as it pertains to treasury companies.
(06:18) I think one of the uh topics that we discussed in January is like who is going to win in this market? What is it just going to be strategy? Is it going to be winner or take all? Are people just going to copyca


tags: Whitney Webb reveals how Epstein ties, digital IDs, and transhumanism drive a surveillance grid, and why Bitcoin and local resilience are vital to resist.

content:
Key Takeaways
-------------

![TFTC - Whitney Webb Exposes Hidden Secrets About Epstein, Digital IDs & Transhumanism Plot | Mark Goodwin](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/09/Whitney-Webb.jpg)

Whitney Webb and Mark Goodwin reveal how Epstein-linked ventures, predictive policing firms like Palantir, and digital ID mandates are converging into a global surveillance-financial control grid. From Vietnam’s mass biometric debanking to the U.S. Genius Act’s quiet push for digital ID, governments are exploiting crises to centralize power, censor dissent, and restrict financial freedom. This is part of a broader transhumanist agenda championed by elites like Peter Thiel and Curtis Yarvin, who envision a techno-feudal order. Yet resistance is possible through Bitcoin, Nostr, open-source AI, local self-reliance, and community resilience.

Best Quotes
-----------

“Carbine 911 was financed heavily by Jeffrey Epstein… now they’ve slowly taken over the 911 call systems of counties across the United States.”

“In the U.S., it looks like it’s going to slide in with the Genius Act, framed as an essential pillar to financial regulation.”

“Vietnam closed 84 million bank accounts, telling people they could be rebanked if they agreed to biometric ID.”

“They capitalize on real tragedies to justify bigger budgets, more control, and removal of liberties, it’s the same strategy of tension used for decades.”

“Their goal is a humane alternative to genocide: virtualizing the unproductive into pods with immersive VR… a rich, fulfilling life in a completely imaginary world.”

“Digital ID won’t work unless everybody complies. We need to normalize pushing back as much as possible.”

“The end result of cryptocurrency might literally be the U.S. Treasury running the entire financial system if people don’t fight back.”

“Go meet your neighbor, start a garden, raise chickens. Local resilience is how we resist being herded into digital corrals.”

Conclusion
----------

The episode warns that crises, whether mass shootings, terrorism, or financial shocks, are being used to justify an expanding technocratic state, threatening privacy, sovereignty, and freedom. But the antidote lies in building parallel systems: decentralized tools like Bitcoin and Nostr, independent media, and local networks of trust and resilience. The battle is between compliance with digital serfdom or proactive steps toward sovereignty.

Timestamps
----------

0:00 - Intro
1:42 - Palantir mafia and stablecoins
7:57 - Vietnam debanking
10:48 - Noncompliance and speech laws
19:44 - Obscura & Bitkey
21:29 - Precrime infrastructure
30:28 - Platform pressure
34:32 - Al-Qaeda's diplomatic welcome
37:35 - Great Reset rebrand
44:48 - Elite transhumanists
56:29 - SLNT & Unchained
58:01 - Patriot Act expansion
1:04:52 - Manufactured political division
1:23:34 - AI independence and physical media
1:38:58 - Touch grass

Transcript
----------

(00:00) He said, quote, "Our goal, in short, is a humane alternative to genocide, the removal of undesirable elements from society, but without any of the moral stigma. A virtualized human is in permanent solitary confinement. The cell contains an immersive virtual reality interface that allows him to experience a rich, fulfilling life in a completely imaginary world.
(00:25) " In 2019 specifically, they really started selling themselves as preventing mass shootings before they happened. Carbine 911 was financed heavily by Jeffrey Epste. Now, they've slowly taken over the 911 call systems of a litany of counties across the United States. Palanteer was specifically really created to be a pre-rime entity. When people like that say they're not spying on Americans, it's kind of hard to trust them.
(00:44) Kirsty is pushing through digital ID to stop illegal immigration, but it seems like in the US they're actually instead of sneaking it through border stuff, it's going to slide in with the Genius Act. the definition of how the government defines domestic terrorism. It includes people really on both sides of the divide.
(01:02) People that are against perceived government overreach, for example, they use whichever group is convenient to pander to their base to justify us giving up liberty for perceived security. A few of the platforms left where people can kind of have a somewhat of a public square, they're actually a centralized choke point. They're actually picking and choosing companies that have a less chance of being independent.
(01:19) The so-called libertarian elites behind people like JD Vance are very overtly transhumanist and think that the only way forward is to basically merge with machines. They are playing us against ourselves and some of them play the role of we're elites on this side and we're elites on the other side to help engineer the divide and conquer necessary to hurt us into this cattle pin.
(01:43) Guys, it's been 10 and 1/2 months since we since we last caught up. That's a long time. Jeez. A lot of time was we recorded uh I believe November 10th, 2025, which was 2 days after the election. We talked about Palunteer Mafia coming in. And when I was thinking about how to start this conversation, I'm sure you guys saw it, but Alex Karp at the All-In Summit very confidently letting the people of the United States know that Palunteer is not spying on individual Americans.
(02:14) At first I was like, "Oh man, maybe I've really misunderstood Palanteer." And then I was like, "Wait a second." Like, "How how is that possible?" Yeah. Do you remember when like James Clapper lied about how they were uh spying on Americans under oath and didn't get in trouble for it? Mhm. Yeah. I think when people like that say they're not spying on Americans, it's kind of hard to trust them given a lot of the precedents, you know. Yeah. James Clapper, NSA.
(02:43) The NSA is not going to work with Palanteer, though. They can't get the contracts. They don't spy enough. That's what was told. Well, um, pretty sure the contract for all 18 US intelligence agencies. Yeah. Well, I guess a year into the Trump admin, the the last episode we did was like what to expect the next four years.
(03:04) Um, and I think the crux of that conversation revolved around sort of financial stable coin implementation. And I think it's pretty clear that that was a very strong priority this administration. They passed the Genius Act rather quickly. Obviously, we're talking about the PayPal Palunteer Mafia getting more ingrained in the surveillance state here. That seems to be happening.
(03:29) Um, and I think one thing we highlighted was with the immigration policy, watch out for the border. digital IDs are probably um the borders where they're gonna basically Trojan horse digital IDs in. And so yeah, it I mean that's still possible. I think that's definitely what's happening in the UK though.
(03:50) So Kier Starmer is pushing through digital ID to stop illegal immigration, which um you know, previously the Labor Party in the UK was pushing it. You know, this is we're going to stop hate speech and stop online bullying. Um, but it seems like in the US they're actually instead of sneaking it through border stuff and on on those same, you know, um, justifications that the UK government is using, it looks like it's going to slide in with the Genius Act.
(04:14) Um, considering what they've, uh, some of the stuff they've put out asking for comment on uh, after its passage, sort of framing digital ID is an essential pillar to the implementation of um, of the Genius Act. So, so somebody somebody who uh prized himself on being on the cutting edge of all this, I was unaware that digital ID was tied into this. I I assume some KYC AML stuff, but didn't realize.
(04:38) Yeah, it's not it's not directly like there's nothing in the Genius Act specifically talking about digital ID. There's obviously a lot about know your customer and bank secrecy act stuff and and what have you, but I think the the bigger well well so as it relates to the Genius Act specifically, the Treasury did open up, you know, asking for comments and within that, you know, proposition asking for for public comment.
(05:04) they did bring up digital ID and um you know I think people like Lola Leites at the Rage has been covering a lot of the the Genius Act implications for like you know basically using articles of the Patriot Act to push towards a lot of this stuff which is obviously not good but I think what's actually kind of interesting is not so much about the US yet although I think that's it's pretty inevitable that that will come at some point but we're actually seeing the downstream effects of the stable coin legislation passing in the US, other places in the world now, like in the UK, they're limiting how many dollar stable coins or attempting to limit how many dollar
(05:38) stable coins a UK citizen can hold. Um and then we're seeing, you know, mass debanking in Vietnam. You know, I think it was something like 70 something million bank accounts um were closed. Um you know, basically saying, you know, we'll we'll rebank you if you agree to this biometric stuff and uh you know, basically implemented digital ID.
(06:07) Um, and I think the reason for that is, you know, when there's a proliferation of US dollar stable coins across the world and, you know, now there's even avenues for yield to be given to those stable coins, which we're going to see right at some point. Um, you know, why would any foreign national hold anything other than, you know, dollars? Hopefully, you know, Bitcoin if if if you're into that.
(06:31) Um, but why would you hold a local currency when you can hold dollars, get yield from it, and all you need to do to get to it is have, you know, a smartphone. So, I think countries around the world, the euro, you know, the ECB is now putting out comments being like, we're screwed if we let the dollar stable coins take over cuz why would


tags: As the bond market unravels, Bitcoin emerges as the new base layer for a deflationary, AI-driven financial system.

content:
Key Takeaways
-------------

![TFTC - Bond Market Shock Sends Bitcoin to $1,000,000 Sooner Than Anyone Expects | Maryland Hodl](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Maryland-Hodl.jpg)

Maryland Hodl argues we’re nearing a “bond revolt” that forces the U.S. to sacrifice the bond market, accelerating a shift from an inflationary, debt-based system to a deflationary, AI-driven economy anchored by Bitcoin as a neutral reserve asset. Stablecoins and Bitcoin-backed “BitBonds” form a sovereign flywheel: Treasury borrows cheaply (1–2%) while investors capture real returns via Bitcoin’s volatility, effectively building a Bitcoin yield curve and repricing the cost of money. As correlations break and social “vibrations” intensify, a bifurcated world emerges (West→Bitcoin, East→gold), with U.S. reindustrialization and front-end duration management signaling a wartime economy. Individually, the advice is simple, buy Bitcoin, because it serves both personal sovereignty and the bridge that may enable a soft landing.

Best Quotes
-----------

“The U.S. government is going to have to sacrifice the bond market.”

“We have an inflationary system heading toward a deflationary one run by AI, with Bitcoin as its monetary base unit.”

“The world doesn’t have a debt problem. We have a collateral problem.”

“BitBonds let the government borrow at 1–2% while investors earn 15–18%.”

“Once the government treats Bitcoin as pristine collateral, it’s game over.”

“Bitcoin’s true value might not be monetary, it could be the return of trust to society.”

“If you want to help accelerate the transition, just buy Bitcoin.”

“Humility is the key. Bitcoin forces you to question everything you’ve been told.”

Conclusion
----------

The conversation presents a coherent transition playbook: embed Bitcoin into sovereign finance via stablecoins and BitBonds to reprice liabilities against absolute scarcity, restore credible collateral, and guide markets toward a deflationary, AI-enabled era. If policy makers embrace this top-down integration, they can manufacture a softer landing, moving duration, stabilizing funding, and catalyzing a reflexive shift where institutions recognize Bitcoin as pristine collateral. The stakes are high, failure risks social fracture, success unlocks an abundance trajectory, but either way, Bitcoin’s role as the base layer of trust and settlement appears inevitable.

Timestamps
----------

0:00 - Intro
0:57 - Systemic vibrations and economic pressure signals
9:14 - Wartime economy and Western Hemisphere focus
13:25 - Energy infrastructure and industrial policy bottlenecks
15:32 - Obscura & Bitkey
17:16 - Monetary breakdown and manipulated Fed data
25:02 - Stablecoins, bitbonds, and the silent coup framework
35:46 - SLNT & Unchained
37:12 - Sovereign flywheel and volatility harvesting mechanics
43:38 - Neutering the Fed and Wall Street adoption tipping point
48:21 - Social cohesion and transition pathways
52:50 - Top-down adoption and Bitcoin's dual purpose
1:01:26 - Humility, trust machine, and questioning everything
1:15:58 - Pilot programs and creative destruction as the only way out

Transcript
----------

(00:00) the US government's going to have to sacrifice the bond market. And he put a timeline of six to nine months from his vantage point. The government can basically get its 1 or 2% borrowing rate, but the investor can get its 15 to 18% and it's going to be close to $3 trillion just to get the grid up to where it needs to be.
(00:19) So, we have an inflationary system that is basically heading towards a deflationary system run by AI with a monetary base unit of Bitcoin. We're going to have bifurcated economic zones where it's going to be western hemisphere versus eastern. If you look at what Sailor's doing, he's developing a Bitcoin yield curve. seems like this would be the perfect entity to essentially do like a bit bond pilot.
(00:37) Imagine when Wall Street with the deepest capital market starts doing the same thing, structuring it with real estate, similar to what you've been talking about or what Grant Cardone is talking about. The world doesn't have a debt problem. We have a collateral problem. What if ultimately Bitcoin was established to start bringing trust back to government and we go into kind of an age of abundance? Basically, all marginal costs are driven to zero because of AI and advancements in AI.
(00:58) Marilyn Hutddle, the the vibration feels off. Certainly does. Certainly does, doesn't it, M? It does. That's where uh that's where we were just talking about. I think we start here, the vibration feeling off. This is sort of a a grown theme. I've seen you tweet about um Dark Side, who was on the show earlier this summer, tweet about uh let's jump into that.
(01:25) is this idea of systemic vibrations as a leading indicator for potential turmoil on the horizon. Yeah. And you a lot of the the work I I've been doing is I'm a a listener. So for the last 5 years since I kind of stumbled into this space I I listen um I watch podcast. I combing Twitter.
(01:53) Um, I'm in spaces listening just to different ideas and seeing where things are breaking down at. You know, a couple of the people that I really like to follow as of late. Um, who I think has been pretty much spot on for years is Luke Gorman, right? and his most recent um podcast that he did. Basically, he started alluded to, you know, from his vantage point, it looks like the the system's breaking down and there's going to be a bond revolt and essentially the US government's going to have to sacrifice the bond market um for a variety of different reasons.
(02:22) And he put a uh a timeline of 6 to9 months from his vantage point, right? you have economic and geopolitical risks that are basically growing in the market and it's going to hit a head at some point. Um, you know, and then you you take Jack Mer's uh Monday podcast that he just recently released, right? He dives into the fact that austerity doesn't work. Um, you know, we're seeing the examples of that in Argentina currently.
(02:54) Um if you extrapolate further and take that into the United States like we're seeing a continuation of all these efforts um that are basically fruitless and the shaping that I put out this week was basically that the government in my opinion Bitcoin's already won right um the government is out of options and that the industrial system that we have grown going to basically embrace over the last since the 1900s.
(03:27) You know, GDP is we have an inflationary system that is basically heading towards a deflationary system run by AI with a monetary base unit uh of Bitcoin. Um which in my opinion is the only monetary asset that can work in a system of deflation. So what we're seeing is these systemic fractures that are happening across society and you can see it even socially right with the cultural wars.
(03:56) Um I think that they they're becoming more frequent which you can essentially equate back to the vibration that you're discussing about. Um and it's becoming more noticeable by even the everyday individual. Right. So, I think society as a whole is starting to wake up to the idea that something's wrong. The financial markets certainly are.
(04:18) I mean, correlations are breaking down across the board. Um, historical norms that have basically been in place for um decades, even generations are no longer holding up. Um, you know, I think we have a a potentially a real crisis on our hands. And you know, I spend a lot of time thinking um I think you have young kids. I have a a three-year-old.
(04:45) And as a father during this stage, early child development, um you start thinking more about what the future's going to hold for your child. So, a lot of my work and effort has been basically focused around a transition, right? What is the transition going to look like from an inflationary system to a deflationary system? How do we avoid all the issues with the for turning and you know what are the issues like the death and destruction, right? Entering into another World War II scenario or before that a civil war and before that
(05:16) the revolutionary war, right? And but now we're in a at a global scale with different types of weapons, right? That can ultimately end society. So my thought process has been I look at Bitcoin as a tool for self- sovereignty but also a tool to be utilized potentially or designed to help us transition through this system.
(05:40) But to your point, the vibrations are getting um more violent and um I think they're becoming undeniable by even the average person across the board. Yeah. Yeah, I mean outside of the culture wars and the social incohesion which seems obvious. I think one sort of anecdotal data point or data points that I've really leaned on over the last two three years specifically are the um the selfie videos of people sitting in their cars complaining about a myriad of different things whether it's the grocery bill, health insurance,
(06:18) car insurance, the inability to afford a house in the first place. I mean, those are accelerating and who knows if they're just sort of attentiongrabbing things that people are trying to leverage on TikTok to get sympathy or feel like their voice is being heard or get some attention. But I I feel like it's very clear that I I do think there's signal there in the sense that people are really feeling the the burden of the the economic pressure uh and then this gap between the rich and the poor accelerating. Um, but in in terms of
(06:54) systemic vibrations like within the system, what specifically are you looking at? I mean, you mentioned Mers earlier this week talking about austerity doesn't work in the context of Argentina. Obviously, the Treasury just opened up a swap line with them for $50 billion um to sort of lessen the blow, the austerity that they've implemented throughout the country over the last few years.
(07:2


tags: Luke Thomas shows how AI agents and Bitcoin treasuries give startups unbounded leverage and force smarter capital allocation.

content:
Key Takeaways
-------------

![TFTC - The AI Boom Will Change Bitcoin Forever! Expert Explains How | Luke Thomas](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Luke-Thomas.jpg)

Marty sat down with Luke Thomas, founder of [Formable.ai](https://formable.ai/?ref=tftc.io), who argues that AI and Bitcoin together represent a once-in-a-generation shift in how businesses form, operate, and scale. He frames AI as “unbounded leverage,” where startups can achieve outsized results with far fewer resources, while Bitcoin serves as a financial foundation that forces founders to think more carefully about capital allocation. Startups that embrace AI agents as digital co-workers can move faster than incumbents weighed down by tech debt, rigid structures, and resistant employees. Meanwhile, Bitcoin rewires treasury management, creating a new “hurdle rate” for profitable businesses: outperform Bitcoin or risk irrelevance. Luke emphasizes that small businesses have the greatest advantage, since they can adopt AI and Bitcoin without bureaucratic baggage, enabling new models of growth and capital preservation in a chaotic, shifting landscape.

Best Quotes
-----------

“We actually want to beat the hurdle rate. We want to beat the Bitcoin appreciation rate. If we don’t, we’re cooked.”

“AI agents are like little digital employees… they can contain a bunch of information about your business and do the job better than a human, because the agent doesn’t forget.”

“Most businesses sprinkle AI on top of old systems. Startups can rebuild from scratch and harness unbounded leverage.”

“Holding even a little Bitcoin on your balance sheet is like hiring a coach, it rewires how you think about building a business.”

“The number one benefit of a Bitcoin treasury isn’t price appreciation, it’s that it makes you a better founder.”

Conclusion
----------

This conversation highlights how AI and Bitcoin together are reshaping the future of business. AI delivers unprecedented productivity through digital co-workers, while Bitcoin disciplines capital allocation and provides a hedge against fiat debasement. Incumbents struggle under old-world structures, but startups that embrace these technologies gain an edge in speed, adaptability, and financial resilience. For Luke, the combination of AI’s unbounded leverage and Bitcoin’s financial foundation marks a paradigm shift: the businesses that adapt will thrive, while those that cling to legacy systems will fade.

Timestamps
----------

0:00 - Intro
0:45 - Luke’s Background
7:11 - Unbounded leverage, AI adoption struggle
13:54 - Osbcura & Bitkey
15:39 - AI evolution retrospective
22:59 - AI agents
30:05 - SLNT & Unchained
31:37 - AI disruption of incumbents
38:41 - Bureaucratic roadblocks
41:59 - AI arms race
51:22 - Product design and UX
55:31 - Building at Formable
1:01:50 - AI-first, decentralization
1:05:50 - Navigating hype
1:12:01 - AI at TFTC
1:20:32 - Bitcoin in the AI strategy
1:29:01 - Adoption timeline for Bitcoin treasuries

Transcript
----------

(00:00) When you're able to store your capital in a better way, are you going to hire that super senior leader that wants a ton of money and may not work out? Or you could just shovel that into Bitcoin. I think that it's going to be a wonderful thing for businesses. We actually want to beat the hurdle rate. We want to beat the Bitcoin appreciation rate. If we don't, we're cooked.
(00:19) These startups that come out of nowhere and it's like, hey, we went from 0 to 100 million in like 8 months. No one's ever seen that before. You don't see a lot of it in the news. You will see more of it. We live in an age where there's kind of this like concept of like unbounded leverage. Your balance sheet is clearly an area where there needs to be some amount of leverage as well.
(00:35) We're only starting to see the beginning in the decade plus I've been in tech. This is easily the biggest shift I've ever seen. Luke, this is uh a great pleasure for me. I've been waiting for this this episode for I think years now. Well, uh I'm definitely excited to be here and uh to all your listeners, I'm sorry.
(01:01) Uh there'll be lots of rants, lots of uh lots of uh unhinged maybe unhinged thoughts. Um but I'm really excited to be here. Well, you've had an open invite to the show for I think at least two years now, and you said you've been saying for two years, when the time's right, and I feel like I have something to say, I will let you know. And that happened a couple weeks ago, and here we are.
(01:25) um thinking of how to start off this episode. I think it's important for the audience to get context. Luke has been uh somebody who's helped me immensely behind the scenes here at TFTC think about thinking about how to position uh the brand and how to increase our SEO. Not only that, how to lean into this AI revolution.
(01:47) And I think just to start off the conversations, get a little history of your career, what you've built, where you've worked, what you're working on now, and what people may may learn if they stick around for the whole episode. Yeah, sure. So, I'll do my best to keep it short. Um, yeah. So, a little bit about me. Um, I grew up in the middle of nowhere in Maine.
(02:10) Uh, up until, uh, when I first went to college, I had always lived on a dirt road. Um, I grew up in a uh small town um in uh in central Maine. It was about 800 people. I think half of the town was on some form of general assistance. Um I was homeschooled growing up. Um I uh attended, yeah, a mixture of homeschooling, private schooling. Um in high school, I ended up getting into web design.
(02:36) Um because I wanted to customize my MySpace profile. I thought it would be cool and maybe uh maybe more girls would talk to me. Um and so uh so that's what I did. I ended up uh basically devoting call it half of day. So I would homeschool for half of the day and then for like the other half of the day I would go to what's called a vocational technical school.
(03:00) Um and uh you know I was in a class with a bunch of kids that wanted to create video games. And I thought web design was cool and I thought maybe there's something there. Little did I know that it would basically influence the rest of my life to date. Um, and so yeah, in high school I kind of learned how to code very uh I wasn't very good at it, but I started creating websites for, you know, small businesses. I ended up um graduating.
(03:24) I I went to school one year in Boston because I thought sports management be would be really fun. Turns out that spending, you know, tens of thousands of dollars a year for fizzed classes probably wasn't the best idea. So I ended up uh uh going to school for marketing and uh paid my way through school.
(03:44) Um kind of did the consulting thing, ended up graduating college uh and wanted to join the startup thing. And so um long story short, my wife and I the second we graduated, we moved um to Boston. I started working in early stage tech companies. I originally joined as an engineer. Um quickly realized I wasn't good at writing code.
(04:03) Uh but I I always viewed uh writing code as a means to an end. For me it was like I loved the uh to grow businesses. And so I ended up uh kind of falling into this uh industry called like growth um which is you know how to think about marketing through a programmatic um lens like a programmer would. And anyway, did that for a few years.
(04:28) Um, you know, learned SEO, learned a bunch of, you know, internet marketing techniques and ended up falling down the product rabbit hole largely because, you know, when you build, uh, when you're building like a startup that is, you know, uh, like a digital product, um, a lot of the growth work, so to speak, that you do ends up actually being product work.
(04:46) It's like how can you create a product where these these like flywheels that help you grow at a low cost. So, you know, for those are who are familiar with like Dropbox, right? It's like people sign up for Dropbox, they get free space. If you want more free space, you share it with a friend. I became very obsessed with that. Um, and ended up doing that for a while.
(05:03) Um, in 2019, I decided to make the plunge, decided to start a remote work um, software company. I saw a bunch of these um, you know, fully distributed companies building their own like internet is the best way of describing it. um Zapier and Stripe and all these kind of well-known uh remote companies had kind of hand rolled their own systems.
(05:26) So I started that and then six months later COVID hit um and so we experienced a lot of growth. Uh I did that for about two years but I ended up shutting the business down because I didn't see a clear path to scaling um on the revenue side in particular. So I ended up joining Zapier for about three years and uh went super deep there on AI and automation. And so yeah, in many ways a culmination of um what you know your listeners will probably hear is like maybe a little bit more of a deeper dive on AI, what it looks like um how it's changing things.
(05:56) Um I also uh left uh about two months ago and I'm I started a new company called Formable. We basically are making it easy for businesses to respond to inbound leads way faster. And so for a lot of businesses, um, you have a contact form on your website. When someone fills it out, they usually have a high level of intent. You want to get back to them as fast as you can.
(06:15) Well, we're building simple and easy to use tools that make it easy for businesses to get back to their c potential customers way faster using AI and automation and a better um data collection or form uh experience. So longterm though, we we want to build kind of a a new school uh marketing automation platform, which is just like making it easy for businesses of all shapes and sizes to um market in a way where you're leveraging AI as much as p


Marty's Bent
------------

[![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-08-at-7.59.37---PM.png)](https://x.com/milessuter/status/1975969260024496525?ref=tftc.io)

via [Miles Suter](https://x.com/milessuter/status/1975969260024496525?ref=tftc.io)

![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/martybent_a_happy_customer_in_a_coffee_shop_paying_via_QR_code__f1a565d0-f08b-41c3-8461-3b160331c418.png)

In 2018 Cash App enabled their users to easily buy and sell bitcoin within the popular consumer finance app. At the time this was a massive validation and endorsement for bitcoin when it was less than a decade old. Having the backing and buy-in from a mainstream fintech player like Block (Square, at the time) was a signal to the world that bitcoin is something to take seriously. Jack Dorsey and team sticking their necks out to recognize bitcoin as a legitimate value added product to their suite will be recognized as a pivotal point in bitcoin's history.

It's been more than seven years since Cash App launched buy/sell bitcoin and Block has launched:

*   Spiral - A non-profit organization dedicated to supporting open-source bitcoin development, with a heavy focus on the lightning network.
*   Bitkey - A hardware wallet that leverages multi-sig to create an easy was for bitcoin users to self-custody their bitcoin with some hand holding.
*   Proto - A mining company dedicated to bringing open mining hardware and management software to compete with incumbents like Bitmain and MicroBT. The Proto team launched the Rig in August; a modular bitcoin mining machine that comes with a sleek fleet management software system.

To say the least, Block really cares about pushing bitcoin forward and has backed that up with heavy investments in businesses that support different parts of the bitcoin market.

With all of that being said, the number one question Block has been asked since they unleashed bitcoin to Cash App users seven years ago is, "Wen bitcoin in Square terminals?!"

Well, as of today, the wait is officially over. Earlier this afternoon, Square announced that all of their merchants will immediately be able to convert a portion of their card sales to bitcoin, buy/sell/hold/withdraw bitcoin via their business portals and on November 10th they will also be able to accept bitcoin via Square terminals as well.

![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-08-at-9.26.36---PM.png)

via [Square](https://squareup.com/us/en/bitcoin?ref=tftc.io)

![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-08-at-9.26.44---PM.png)

via [Square](https://squareup.com/us/en/bitcoin?ref=tftc.io)

![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-08-at-9.26.50---PM.png)

via [Square](https://squareup.com/us/en/bitcoin?ref=tftc.io)

This. This right here is massive. As it stands today, Square supports over 4,000,000 merchants across the United States and every single one of them will be able to log into their Square business accounts tomorrow and decide to automatically convert a portion of their cash flow into bitcoin. If 10% of their US customer base enables this feature that will produce 400,000 new small, medium and large businesses that are using bitcoin as a treasury asset that enables them to help grow their businesses. Don't take it from me, take it from Glenn Charles, who has been part of Square's beta test of this product for the last two years.

![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-08-at-10.07.04---PM.png)

via [Glenn Charles](https://x.com/GlennCharlesPh1/status/1976039946961158401?ref=tftc.io)

This is the type of "corporate" bitcoin adoption you love to see. Bitcoin is an asset that can help small businesses in ways that most people cannot even fathom. I know from experience, this small (but mighty) media company has benefited massively from our bitcoin treasury, our ability to accept bitcoin for payment and our ability to pay employees and contractors in bitcoin. Opening this up to 4,000,000 businesses overnight cannot be overstated. Most importantly because Square is making bitcoin a first-class citizen throughout the experience, where other payment processors and point-of-sale systems make it hard for their customers to integrate bitcoin throughout the business stack.

Once bitcoin payments are enabled in a little over a month merchants will be able to receive bitcoin and either convert it immediately to cash or hold it in bitcoin. Bitcoiners who live on a bitcoin standard will be able to spend their sats at many more merchants in meat space. THE bitcoin standard becomes more tangible.

[![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-08-at-10.28.00---PM.png)](https://x.com/owenbjennings/status/1976035183767015909?ref=tftc.io)

via [OBJ](https://x.com/owenbjennings/status/1976035183767015909?ref=tftc.io)

The next thing to check off the list is getting a de minimis tax exemption for bitcoin payments. It looks like Jack is putting the pressure on.

[![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-08-at-10.26.25---PM.png)](https://x.com/jack/status/1976056646138036581?ref=tftc.io)

via [jack](https://x.com/jack/status/1976056646138036581?ref=tftc.io)

* * *

### Chop-Solidation Market Dynamics: Insights into Bitcoin's 2025 Market

In our latest episode, we delved into the current state of the Bitcoin market for 2025, which has been marked by a phase of consolidation with notably low volatility. This 'chop-solidation' phase, as my guest James Check described, suggests a market that is maturing and becoming more sophisticated. The discussion highlighted how this period of stability might be setting the stage for a significant future movement in the market, indicating a strategic patience among investors.

> The market is showing signs of a sophisticated structure, preparing for something big. - [James Check](https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_?ref=tftc.io)

This optimistic outlook was shared by both myself and James, suggesting that the current market dynamics could lead to substantial opportunities for those who remain patient and vigilant. The low volatility phase is not just a lull but potentially a precursor to a major shift, making this an exciting time for Bitcoin enthusiasts and investors alike.

Check out the [full podcast here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uZW0j-sW6w&feature=youtu.be&ref=tftc.io) for more with one of the most accurate price prediction and market structure experts we have on the show.

* * *

### Headlines of the Day

[Tokyo firm invests $3.3M in Bitcoin](https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1975931437133013140?ref=tftc.io)

[Bitcoin payments via WhatsApp demoed](https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1975921235088294326?ref=tftc.io)

[Bitcoin addresses over 100 BTC hit ATH](https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1975942718821216578?ref=tftc.io)

[Square introduces zero-fee Bitcoin wallet](https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1975921191769555166?ref=tftc.io)

[Loosening conditions fuel Bitcoin bull run](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1975960945559257315?ref=tftc.io)

[Bitcoin's floor at $95k, target $150k](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1975956145073172503?ref=tftc.io)

* * *

[![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/D1.png)](https://unchnd.co/4nulnb8?ref=tftc.io)

[Download here](https://unchnd.co/4nulnb8?ref=tftc.io)

You know the story of bitcoin’s market cycles... euphoric blow-offs, brutal crashes. _Maybe not anymore_. [**The Bitcoin Checkpoint**](https://unchnd.co/4nulnb8?ref=tftc.io) takes a deep look at how the 2023–2025 cycle has rewritten market structure and why these changes could be permanent.

Inside, you’ll find analysis of record-low volatility, ETF flows absorbing billions monthly, and why long-term holders remain in control with $1.3T in unrealized profit. Plus, download now for automatic access to the event where James Check took a deep dive into the report himself.

* * *

### Bitcoiners: Don’t let nefarious actors steal your sats.

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Block WiFi, GPS, RFID, and EMPs with our MIL-STD compliant tech. Made in the USA, trusted by 8 military contracts. Protect your wealth, stay untraceable.

Add Faraday protection to your stack here: [https://slnt.com/tftc](https://slnt.com/pages/tftc?ref=tftc.io) & use code _TFTC for 15% off_

[![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/09/Reclaim-your-privacy.png)](https://slnt.com/pages/tftc?ref=tftc.io)

[Use Code: TFTC](https://slnt.com/pages/tftc?ref=tftc.io)

* * *

### Obscura – The World’s Best VPN Built by Bitcoiners

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[![Square Enables Merchants To Easily Accumulate Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/08/newsletter-1.jpg)](https://obscura.net/?ref=tftc.io)

[USE CODE TFTC25](https://obscura.net/?ref=tftc.io)

**Outsmarts internet censorship**: works even on the most restrictive Wi-Fi networks where other VPNs fail.
**Pay with bitcoin o


tags: James Check says Bitcoin’s consolidation is over and $150K is next as institutional demand reshapes the market.

content:
Key Takeaways
-------------

![TFTC - Market Expert Reveals How Much Bitcoin You Need to Retire! $150K Coming Soon | James Check](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/James-Check--1-.jpg)

James Check argues that Bitcoin has entered a new era of maturity defined by institutional dominance, evolving derivatives markets, and a powerful “buy-side floor” forming around $95K–$110K. He believes Bitcoin’s realized cap surpassing $1 trillion signals unprecedented capital inflows, with ETFs and IBIT options marking a permanent market structure shift. The “chopsolidation” of 2025, months of sideways trading around $110K, has built a multi-trillion-dollar base that positions Bitcoin for a sustained move toward $150K and potentially a $3T market cap. Long-term holders are still selling in waves, but buyers, ETFs, corporations, and high-net-worth individuals, are absorbing supply and holding firm. Meanwhile, retail participation is shrinking, and institutions now drive price discovery. Check views gold as Bitcoin’s roadmap in a global “debasement trade,” with fiat currencies and bonds collapsing in real terms. He warns that external shocks, such as an AI bubble burst, could slow Bitcoin’s ascent, but overall sees the market entering a more volatile, euphoric phase driven by derivatives, liquidity, and demand for hard assets.

Best Quotes
-----------

“Bitcoiners are sitting on $1.5 trillion of unrealized profit, half a trillion more than Berkshire Hathaway’s entire market cap.”

“There’s something wrong with the denominator. It’s all one trade now.”

“Gold smells out the debasement first, Bitcoin follows with force.”

“We’re not seeing people exit because Bitcoin’s overvalued; we’re seeing people take profit while buyers vault it away. That’s new.”

“IBIT options overtaking Deribit this fast is mind-blowing, this is the biggest shift since ETFs went live.”

“Retail doesn’t move the needle anymore. The sovereign and institutional bid now defines the cycle.”

“We’ve proved a $2T base, now we’re building toward $3T. The era of chopsolidation is ending.”

“You don’t want dumb retail to show up, that’s when it’s over.”

“This time is actually different, you can see it in the volatility profile and the maturity of the bid side.”

“Stay humble and stack sats, the goal is to understand why Bitcoin moves, not to chase it.”

Conclusion
----------

Check concludes that Bitcoin’s bull market is entering its euphoric stage, supported by deep institutional liquidity, derivative expansion, and a structural shift in market psychology. The $95K–$110K range now serves as Bitcoin’s “HODL wall,” signaling resilience even through major selloffs. As gold leads the “debasement trade,” Bitcoin is positioned to follow, reflecting growing recognition among investors that fiat is failing as a denominator of value. While AI and macro risks could briefly unsettle markets, the long-term trajectory is clear: Bitcoin has crossed the Rubicon from speculation to systemic adoption. Check’s final message is measured optimism, embrace the volatility, stay flexible, and don’t mistake noise for signal in a market that’s still “growing up.”

Timestamps
----------

0:00 - Intro
1:20 - The Debasement Trade is here
7:00 - Businesses stacking sats
10:18 - James’s report and chopsolidation
15:40 - Bitkey & Crowdhealth
17:50 - Realized volatility
20:48 - Debasement goes mainstream
23:56 - Fiat in gold terms
27:01 - Are people waking up?
30:10 - AI boom
38:00 - SLNT & Unchained
39:26 - Gold ripping
50:32 - On-chain levels
58:44 - Retail doesn’t have the power this cycle
1:12:33 - Metrics to ignore

Transcript
----------

(00:00) The era of chop consolidation as we know it is probably going to take a back seat because I think we now enter the proper euphoria phase. The fact that we're still pushing up to 125. Honestly, the market is now saying I want higher. You could be at 150 by the end of the week. People who are coming in now, the traders, the retirement accounts, they just see the IBIT chart.
(00:16) It's in a bull market. It goes up only. Bitcoin has this very, very unique characteristic where it lulls everyone to sleep and then it rips. Gold, I think, tells us the future. It's where we're going when all is said and done. It smells out the debasement first months in advance. Bitcoin's at 125 grand. It's punching all-time highs and I just flick through all the treasury company charts.
(00:33) Down 85, down 95. Some of them are punching new lows. The least discussed, but I think most important thing since the ETFs, there's a market structure shift has been these IBIT options. This time is actually different and you can see it in this chart. It's just looking at all the major fiat currencies.
(00:49) They're all down 40 to 60% in gold terms and Bitcoin is up 50 to 80% more than that. Now, the gold market going up is just raising the ceiling for where Bitcoin's going. Vast majority of these firms had like 0.1% allocated to Bitcoin. Tens to hundreds of millions of dollars. Tiny portfolio allocation. Massive dollars. What happens if they go to 0.
(01:05) 002 the most bullish metric of all time in Bitcoin? The realized cap. It just crossed a trillion dollars. I bit as of today just crossed over 58% of the overall AUM dominance. Blows into all the ETFs except IBIT are flat and IBIT is just tearing away. James, the debasement trade is on. New alltime highs are here. It's all one trade, mate. It's all one trade. There's something wrong with the denominator. It really is.
(01:33) It really is. And people don't realize it yet. It's fascinating, right? And like I've said this before, I think even on this podcast, it's amazing to me that like bond traders, I love Luke Gman's line, is like they have to lull them to sleep and just like slowlyize the bond market.
(01:51) they have to just like pretend that they're going to try and solve this problem. Don't worry, just hold these bonds. We're going to mandate these ones or no, it's okay. We're going to try and get yields down, which means bond prices up. And it's like, guys, it's just they're they're coins. They really are. And this to the skeptics out there, the Bitcoin skeptics, it is astonishing.
(02:09) I think uh Mitchell Hodddle, he had this tweet from earlier today. I'll I'll pull it up because I thought it was a good one. uh new all-time highs today and people for better or for worse still believe Bitcoin is a fad. Um not something to pay attention to, but if I mean we've talked about this many times I think how far Bitcoin has come in only a little under 17 years is is miraculous and it shows here like you we'll look back on Bitcoin's monetization and marvel at how fast it happened on the zoomed out timeline of humanity. Bitcoin's takeover happened virtually instantaneously. Truly a zero to one
(02:46) moment. Totally. Um, so here's an interesting thought that I'd be curious to get your ideas on. I don't know about you, man. I'm certainly observing that Bitcoin has become desensitized to it. So there's almost this bifocation of how people are observing and and analyzing and studying Bitcoin.
(03:05) People who are coming in now, let's call them the traders, the retirement accounts. Like granted, there's still a small chunk of the overall demand. um I would estimate something like 20 odd percent or thereabouts. They're coming in and going like they just see the IBIT chart. It's in a bull market. It goes up only.
(03:21) What's not to like? And then people, all the Bitcoiners who've been around through all the high octane phases looking at this thing being like, "Oh god, this cycle sucks. It's so slow. So boring." You've got this real interesting dichotomy where it's like it is monetizing at an incredible rate. Think about some of the headlines that we see these days.
(03:41) If you told yourself that back in 2020, back in 2018 for you back in 2013, 144, 15, you wouldn't believe it, right? You just actually couldn't believe it was happening and now we're so desensitized to it. There's like this bifocation of the market. What are your thoughts on that? I think Bitcoin bores people to death. It This is what Bitcoin does.
(04:00) It ls people into a state of complacency and uh uncomfortability where they're not happy that it's not reaching new alltime highs every day. But again, it's insane looking at the charts now. We're at $2.5 trillion market cap and thinking back to our conversation earlier this year where Bitcoin had established itself as a $2 trillion asset and it's already added 25% more in market cap since then.
(04:27) And it's like what do you what do you people want? What more do you want? It's up almost 100% in over the last one year. It's up 32.6% year-to date. five years up over a thousand percent like it is monetizing in real time. But you were alluding to some things that have manifested over the course of this year that may have some longtime Bitcoiners but hurt because they made the wrong decision. Oh yeah, the old treasury company trade.
(04:50) This I mean this is one of those things that like I I love it. Like all things I love the gray zone. The gray zone is where I find it interesting. Um and you know you look at some of the comments I get on Twitter. I was, you know, I poked fun of them on Twitter saying, you know, Bitcoin's at 125 grand. It's punching alltime highs. And I just flick through all the Treasury company charts. Down 60, down 70, down 85, down 95.
(05:12) It's like some of them are punching new lows as Bitcoin is ripping to new alltime highs. You just look at this thing like something is going on here, right? That the market is in my view, like my real high level view, I've had this line that MNAV gravity is towards one.
(05:32) It appears to be that MNAV gravity is indeed towards one that by the way gravity just means that's the that's the acceleration. That's where it wants to go. There are a handful of these companies that


Marty's Bent
------------

[![The Great Debasement Trade Is On And Bitcoin Is Positioned Beautifully](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-02-at-9.30.48---AM.png)](https://x.com/elerianm/status/1973755997173989595?ref=tftc.io)

via [Mohamed A. El-Erain](https://x.com/elerianm/status/1973755997173989595?ref=tftc.io)

![The Great Debasement Trade Is On And Bitcoin Is Positioned Beautifully](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/martybent_a_money_printer_printing_in_overdrive_with_its_operat_4bb1ae8f-ba44-43cf-bd38-d3409a54612c.png)

Last week was a good week for bitcoin and the momentum seems to be increasing as this week begins. Today we saw a new all-time high above $126,000. It seems like we're about to hit escape velocity after multiple periods of chopsolidation between $80,000 and $110,000 throughout the year. As is tradition, the engine started revving at the tail end of September and the car left the garage in early October. This Fall should be a fun one.

Why is this happening?

I believe because the world is finally waking up to the fact that governments around the world are objectively bankrupt and their only way out of it is to completely debase their currencies. Last week, JP Morgan analysts revealed that they've been asking their clients why they're allocating to assets like gold and bitcoin to which they replied,"the world is on fire, inflation doesn't seem to be tamed, government deficits dictate more debt creation to paper over the existing debt, the Fed is clearly not independent anymore, fiat currencies are kind of whack when you think about them, and it's obvious that the dollar has fallen out of favor with some of the world's superpowers." The JP Morgan analysts have cleverly coined the trend of funneling your money into neutral reserve scarce assets as the "debasement trade". I'm not going to lie, it has a nice ring to it. It also validates one of the core themes of this newsletter and the discussions we've been having on the podcast for the last eight years.

The year is 2025 and longtime bitcoin skeptics like Mohamed El-Erian are finally waking up to the fact that more people are beginning to recognize this. The world has a problem. The denominators of the measurements of value (fiat currencies) are increasing at an accelerating pace, prices are rising and people are struggling as a result. The expansion of the denominators of value measurement is not only bad for the lower classes who feel the pressures immensely, it is also bad for the upper classes who are experiencing what I refer to as a "wealth mirage". Their stock tickers are moving up and to the right, and it makes them feel good inside. However, it is a mirage because the stock gains are barely keeping up with REAL inflation and are getting absolutely demolished by the returns of hard assets like bitcoin and gold. Luke Gromen made this abundantly clear last week when he charted the "debasement trade" by measuring stock indices and real estate returns in dollars, gold and bitcoin.

[![The Great Debasement Trade Is On And Bitcoin Is Positioned Beautifully](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-06-at-11.50.16---PM.png)](https://x.com/LukeGromen/status/1974184554782220583?ref=tftc.io)

via [Luke Gromen](https://x.com/LukeGromen/status/1974184554782220583?ref=tftc.io)

How long will bitcoin have to continue winning this dominantly before everyone bends the knee and makes a material allocation to bitcoin to avoid the consequences of global debt debasement? I don't think that long. After almost 17-years of beating the memetic drum of "fiat currencies bad", "number go up", "nothing stops this train", "centralized third parties are security holes", and a number of other easily digestible phrases that cut to the core of the world's problem, the people with immense amounts of capital are beginning to wake up. And I have a feeling that the normalization of the "debasement trade" will be the snowflake that causes the avalanche. Recognizing that debasement is the only way out of the debt problem has just been made "cool" in the eyes of some of the most respected institutions in the world. Whether or not that respect is deserved doesn't really matter. What matters is that people, rightly or wrongly, respect these institutions and act based off what they say.

Buckle up.

* * *

### Digital Transformation Must Include Financial Innovation

Luke Thomas argues that companies embracing AI while ignoring Bitcoin for treasury management are living a contradiction. He points out that VCs encourage startups to "embrace technology in every part of the business" except the balance sheet - a glaring inconsistency in the digital transformation narrative. As Luke notes, "digital transformation exists everywhere" and should naturally extend to how companies store value.

> "The balance sheet shouldn't be off limits from technological innovation."- [Luke Thomas](https://x.com/lukethomas14?ref=tftc.io)

I've seen this firsthand at TFTC and through our portfolio at 1031. Companies that truly understand digital transformation recognize Bitcoin as essential infrastructure, not speculation. Luke's observation cuts to the heart of Silicon Valley's selective blindness: you can't claim to be building the future while storing your value in the past.

Check out the [full podcast here](https://youtu.be/YPvmsknIMaU?ref=tftc.io) for more on AI agents replacing white collar jobs, startup disruption patterns, and homeschooling with AI.

* * *

### Headlines of the Day

[Goldman Sees More Institutions in Ethereum](https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1974132964704612728?ref=tftc.io)

[Russia Exchange Seeks End to Retail Bitcoin Ban](https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1974125383080624132?ref=tftc.io)

[Coinbase Samsung Partnership Enables Crypto Access](https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1974101727201902646?ref=tftc.io)

[Treasury Clarifies No Tax on Unrealized Bitcoin Gains](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1973788506603597950?ref=tftc.io)

[JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Upside to $165000 Versus Gold](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1973802568532045989?ref=tftc.io)

[BlackRock ETF Surpasses 777000 Bitcoin Holdings](https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1974074683655155907?ref=tftc.io)

* * *

### Obscura – The World’s Best VPN Built by Bitcoiners

Created by Carl Dong (former Bitcoin Core contributor), unlike other VPNs, it _can’t_ log your activity by design, delivering verifiable privacy you can trust.

[![The Great Debasement Trade Is On And Bitcoin Is Positioned Beautifully](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/08/newsletter-1.jpg)](https://obscura.net/?ref=tftc.io)

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**Outsmarts internet censorship**: works even on the most restrictive Wi-Fi networks where other VPNs fail.
**Pay with bitcoin over Lightning:** better privacy and low fees.
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* * *

### Bitcoiners: Don’t let nefarious actors steal your sats.

SLNT's patented Faraday backpacks, sleeves, and dry bags secure your hardware wallet or electronics against hackers and solar flares.

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* * *

_Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $200M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at_ [ten31.vc/invest](https://ten31.vc/invest?ref=tftc.io)_._

* * *

**Final thought...**

The Phillies are disappointing.

* * *

_Download our free browser extension, **Opportunity Cost**:_ [https://www.opportunitycost.app/](https://www.opportunitycost.app/?ref=tftc.io) start thinking in SATS today.

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[![The Great Debasement Trade Is On And Bitcoin Is Positioned Beautifully](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/03/yt.png)](https://youtube.com/@TFTC?feature=shared&ref=tftc.io)

[![The Great Debasement Trade Is On And Bitcoin Is Positioned Beautifully](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/03/insta.png)](https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/?ref=tftc.io)

[![The Great Debasement Trade Is On And Bitcoin Is Posi


tags: Vince Lanci reveals how U.S. paper markets suppress Bitcoin and gold as China builds a gold-backed system, setting up a global reset in money and collateral.

content:
Key Takeaways
-------------

![TFTC - Why The US Government is Suppressing Bitcoin Before The Everything Bubble Pops | Vince Lanci](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Vince-Lanci.jpg)

Vince Lanci explains how the U.S. government is suppressing Bitcoin’s price through financialization, the same mechanism once used to control gold. By creating deep derivatives markets, institutions shift liquidity and price discovery from spot markets to futures, allowing them to suppress prices with “paper” supply. This mirrors the London Gold Pool strategy post-1971. Lanci argues the U.S. now controls Bitcoin’s liquidity through ETFs and custodial structures, effectively “co-opting” it rather than banning it. Meanwhile, China and the BRICS nations are building a parallel gold-backed system, transforming gold into a high-quality liquid asset (HQLA) for project financing and de-dollarization. Both blocs are repatriating gold as collateral in a global “cabal squabble,” while the U.S. weakens its own dollar through monetized debt and inflationary policy. Trump’s “accelerationism,” energy diplomacy, and tariff maneuvers are part of a race to re-industrialize before the next crisis. Lanci warns this cycle resembles the 1970s: inflationary headwinds, rate cuts into a bubble, and an inevitable recession that resets global collateral trust, where Bitcoin may eventually rise as digital sound money once fiat and gold systems clash.

Best Quotes
-----------

“When the futures price becomes more important than the spot price, you can influence the market lower by just selling paper.”

“You don’t announce you’re going to create an SPR for Bitcoin. You just buy.”

“China’s building a network of vaults so every country can have its gold close enough to see, it’s about trust.”

“Gold will be carried on everyone’s balance sheet according to a moving average, not the daily price. That’s how they’re stabilizing it.”

“The U.S. is emptying London of its gold, it’s a crisis of collateral.”

“If you can’t kill Bitcoin, you co-opt it. ETFs pull all liquidity to U.S. custody.”

“The ETF is a China closet for Bitcoin, a store of value that doesn’t circulate.”

“The state does two things: it kills people, and it prints money. It won’t give up either.”

“Bitcoin will survive because it’s indestructible, it just needs time and opportunity.”

“Gold bugs and Bitcoiners are fighting the same battle. One raised the other.”

Conclusion
----------

Lanci sees the coming years as a geopolitical and monetary collision between two systems: the U.S. dollar empire trying to maintain dominance through controlled liquidity, and the BRICS bloc using gold to rebase global credit. Bitcoin sits in the middle, suppressed but slowly integrating as a parallel network of trust and settlement. Its survival, like gold’s, depends on usage and decentralization beyond ETFs. Over time, the same inflation and debt that erode fiat systems will drive adoption of harder assets. Lanci’s warning is clear: the “everything bubble” will end not with a soft landing, but with a crisis of collateral, and Bitcoin, if allowed to circulate freely, may emerge as the digital resolution.

Timestamps
----------

0:00 - Intro
1:04 - Luongo
11:49 - Shanghai warrants
24:25 - Chinese bonds
32:01 - Bitkey & SLNT
33:49 - Gold & tariffs
37:46 - Russian war
44:11 - Obscura & Unchained
45:33 - Bessent’s plans and FOMO
51:20 - Copper
53:56 - Vince’s neutral stance
1:00:53 - Real inflation
1:06:47 - Global inflation
1:16:18- Bitcoin

Transcript
----------

(00:00) the futures price becomes more important than the spot price. Then you can influence the market lower by just selling paper. We're kind of in a bubble right now. Are you telling me we're not going to have a recession for the next 15 years? We have to have a recession with inflationary headwinds.
(00:12) You can't lower rates without causing a bubble. We can't pay off our debt. So, we're printing money. We're weakening the dollar intentionally. I'll start to say crash if I see a day where every country can have their gold close enough to see to visit. The US is now emptying London of its gold. It's a crisis of collateral.
(00:28) You need to have the collateral there. You need to say this is my goal. Trump's an accelerationist. Whether he's good or bad, I don't care. We're going to get to where we have to get faster because of him. Trump and gold. That's your Scott Bessent thing. And that's where Bitcoin comes in.
(00:39) You don't announce you're going to create an SPR or for Bitcoin. You just buy. Japan used to go like this. All right. We're not buying enough stuff from the US. What are we going to buy? Cars? No. Let's buy some gold. It's a it's a money laundering operation. There are smart people like Scottas who know what's going on and know the endgame.
(00:51) This is best. We need cheap energy. We need a weak dollar and we need to build stuff. I see the energy getting cheaper. I know Trump's cutting deals with Saudis. Vince, I think this was the uh the most enlightening pre-record conversation I've had. We should record that \[ \_\_ \] for your for your premium people, right? We should have.
(01:16) We should have. I you know, I do that when I'm with Tom Lango. We hit the tape before we hit the tape. I hit the tape on my phone. I go, "Let's go." We argue about something like music or some booer \[ \_\_ \] you know. All right. Tom is Tom is one of my favorite crazy uncles, recurring crazy uncles on the show. He's totally He's totally Yeah. Yeah. We We definitely We definitely um riff off of each other from different angles.
(01:36) I look at it from finances and I try and explain the world. He tries to explain the world from ideology and together it's like we're both right or we're both just, you know, lying to each other. Who knows? All right. So, I'm with you. Do you do you pick up uh what he's putting down in terms that uh England still controls the world? the crowns of the world.
(02:00) The the the he needs a focal point and that focal point, this is not going to be a negative statement. He seems to focus on a focal point and then he sees the tentacles coming out. I don't see the focal point. It may not be the king of England or the crown. Remember, you know, two years ago it was Davos and WF and the Biden junza.
(02:21) That was his that was his expression. And now he's gravitated towards the crown. I'm like, you know what? I mean, when you look at things through the lens that I study and analyze things, which is like him. Um, and that is all you do is you find out who benefits and who suffers and you just keep and you just keep eliminating people until you find out the one guy who's there.
(02:43) And I don't know that it's the crown per se, but there's definitely a one thing that he said that's really true is that Europe in general is a plantation. Long time ago, he was talking about this way. Europe's a plantation. They've, you know, feudalism and the people that are in power want to stay in power and the Europeans are still colonizing.
(03:06) They're still trying to protect their colonies. And I guess if you want to put a focal point on it, you can call it the crown. You can call it the people that operate the crown. I I think I think I know from a friend of mine who's in uh who's a banking executive here that there's an ideological split and it's everywhere.
(03:26) And the ideological split is the the uh European old money. I mean, they don't have anything there. I mean, I'm not ne I'm not anti- Europe like he is. Uh but you know they're doubling down on s say ideology or wokeness and Germany's got no manufacturing anymore. No no I I I I agree with him like I it's it's probably not that in six months you and I will talk about this again and he will say well I know who's pulling the strings of the crown now.
(03:58) You know he just keeps going up the ladder right? He was like I hate but I mean I hate Biden because of this and I'm like yeah you're right. He goes, and then he then I will look at Europe and and and England in terms of trade. I'll say, 'Well, this is what's going on here. That doesn't make sense. Italy's getting screwed, yada yada yada. And then I'll say, well, that's because the ideology is driving all the policy.
(04:15) Like, I will say the ideology influences policy. Mhm. Cuz I still I still believe that people can at least be semi-rational. He, you know, he's kind of dragging me that way, but he's like, "No, no, ideology determines everything with these people." And it's it's sad, pathetic, but it's true. Like, I'm looking at things differently now.
(04:40) Like, for example, domestically, Camala Harris, right? I don't care about the politics. I'm not a political person. Well, I I I identify her as what you would call a third generation feminist. So there's there's there's, you know, real feminists, then there's the their children, and then there's a third generation. Why are you feminist? Because my mom was. Camala is third generation.
(04:59) I'm like, well, where did she get this training? And I found out yesterday. Camala Har I'm listening to like the D Kennedys, which is like um uh they have a song called Are you familiar with the band? Yep. All right. So, California Uber, right? It's about Jerry Brown, you know, the hippie who wanted to run for president when Reagan won.
(05:18) And uh and and and I'm reading the lyrics and I'm like, "Yeah, this is pretty funny. It's really cool." And then, you know, I'm Where's Jerry Brown now? Boom. I did one of those things on Chat GPT. And uh Camala Harris has came up and his name came up in his bio. She was attorney general for California for seven years under him. And I'm like, "Oh, that's where you got it." And they just gone off the deep end, those people. Anyway, all right, cool.
(05:42) Um so I agree with Tom on a lot of things. And when I disagree, I let him know. And it's usually minor stuff. Uh


OsfoZ0xb4PGQB7AH+DjBnmRvq0AKD2dhU3/B8UXMsOtdT6VZtawlPaRLigVkglhv/7jVhWl5cY7Esv4oe3l+nIyo/UHaRm1KwIx6X5RQ8CE5ZjjxTRzIeCPI1Wxct+dNt+hA2ovE4pYEOLYS7Msd8WaCHjOwI5msCInaoFqT/SdxIPfdqfanyMcBgHKArswaNZ26ts79gpALrZHtwdc/wLDOjuai1Rt2sQVgEfFMWDBFPXJOmT4VhYfYOug6bKi7DDiEZv/L08zw7w0c5YUElcJveRlS/7UnGjArqQfKkV8=?iv=Ms76mel+ZrQgoUqdOl3YUw==


Marty's Bent
------------

[![Silicon Valley Doesn't Understand Money](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-10-at-9.33.03---AM.png)](https://x.com/MartyBent/status/1976362149951005172?ref=tftc.io)

via [me](https://x.com/MartyBent/status/1976362149951005172?ref=tftc.io)

![Silicon Valley Doesn't Understand Money](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/martybent_tesla_CEO_Elon_Musk_standing_next_to_a_money_printer__7080d386-4cdd-4c6c-baf8-a76c57ecbddb.png)

The tweet I quoted by Nikita Bier was making the rounds on Twitter last week. He was perplexed by the notion that bitcoin and gold prices have been rallying as individuals and institutions alike move their capital in preparation for a multi-polar world that will bring with it higher rates of inflation as governments and central banks turn to printing money and high fiscal deficits to paper over the problems they've created over the last five decades. How can bitcoin and gold buyers not see that AI is here, it's going to take over the world and it's going to be deflationary?!

The irony of the tweet is mind boggling when you consider the fact that a good portion of the stimulus and fiscal deficits described above will be driven by the desire to win the global AI arms race. Governments are going to issue debt, monetize existing debt, and subsidize the build out of grid infrastructure, data centers and on-shoring critical manufacturing capabilities. All of this will be inflationary. The end result may be that we can ping an LLM to do some deep research on a relatively complex subject and it will provide us with an extremely detailed report in minutes for a few cents. And yes, in the long-run, if these AI models continue to live up to the hype, may ultimately replace white collar jobs that cost companies hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. However, the additional productivity gains will be soundly overwhelmed by the amount of money printing that enables them in the first place.

How do I know this is the case? Because it has always been the case. The other ironic thing about Nikita's tweet is that he seems to be completely oblivious to the fact that tech has always been deflationary and we have witnessed awe inspiring levels of tech deflation over the course of centuries. Here's a picture of the first ever computer that was built by the US Army.

![Silicon Valley Doesn't Understand Money](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Electronic-Numerical-Integrator-And-Computer.png)

The ENIAC

And here's some information about how big it was, how much computation it could handle, and how much it cost to make.

![Silicon Valley Doesn't Understand Money](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-13-at-9.42.04---PM.png)

via [simslifecycle.com](https://www.simslifecycle.com/blog/2022/the-journey-of-eniac-the-worlds-first-computer/?ref=tftc.io)

In today's inflation-adjusted dollars, it cost the US Army ~$8,000,000 to build this absolute unity in 1946. The ENIAC wouldn't be recognized as a computer by people living today. It would seem too dumb because computers have the luxury of using computers that are _checks notes_ **100 million to 1 billion** times faster than the ENIAC.

![Silicon Valley Doesn't Understand Money](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-13-at-9.43.21---PM.png)

via my LLM slave

![Silicon Valley Doesn't Understand Money](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/image-1.png)

I bought a Mac Book a few weeks ago and it cost $1,000, or 0.0125% the cost of the ENIAC. That's insanely deflationary. And despite this incredible tech deflation, the cost of living has consistently risen over the course of my life and has been accelerating in recent years. The money printer is orders of magnitude stronger than the forces of tech-driven deflation. AI is not going to change that.

This chart was popular many years ago and it really drives home the problem. (I'd love to see this chart updated through the COVID years. I imagine it looks much worse.)

![Silicon Valley Doesn't Understand Money](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/image.png)

Money printing perturbs capital allocation. When money is printed, it has to go somewhere. As you can see from the chart, the last 27 years has seen a flow of money from the monetary spigots into the market, which has driven up the costs for things that are deemed essential to life in 2025. Medical care, housing, education, food, and childcare. Saving some money on your big screen TV, smartphone and video games is nice, but it doesn't save you enough to be able to weather the forces of price increases in the highest ticket items that are essential to maintaining a life of dignity.

Tech deflation is certainly real, and it is certainly incredible for humanity. Unfortunately, humanity is not able to reap the full benefits of tech deflation because people are forced to fight the powerful forces of monetary inflation. If we want to live in a society where everyone has an exponentially higher chance of leading an extremely high quality life in which they can reap the full benefits offered by advances in technology, tech deflation needs to be paired with a deflationary money like bitcoin. As technology makes us more productive, expands the spectrum of potential goods and services that can be brought to the market relatively cheaply and pushes humanity forward, people should be able to buy more for less and save their excess productivity in a money that works for them, not against them.

Until then, all of the tech deflation we see in the market will be bitter sweet. We're advancing tremendously, but not everyone sees their quality of life advancing. They experience the exact opposite.

For some reason, it seems that most people in Silicon Valley do not understand this simple truth.

* * *

### Retail Investors Won't Drive Bitcoin's 2025 Rally Like They Did in 2017 and 2021

James Check raised a sobering observation about this market cycle: retail investors may not return with the fervor we saw in 2017 and 2021. The simple reality is that everyday Americans don't have the capital anymore. While institutions quietly accumulate Bitcoin through ETFs and sophisticated derivatives, regular people are drowning in rising costs. Health insurance premiums are spiking 25-60% across the country during this enrollment period. Germany just announced plans to raise retirement age to 72, with similar discussions happening here at 67. The quality of life for those without financial assets has deteriorated dramatically as real costs explode while wages stagnate.

> "I don't think retail has the money. I don't think they have the money to come." - [James Check](https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_?ref=tftc.io)

This cycle is fundamentally different. The mania phase driven by retail FOMO may not materialize because retail simply lacks disposable income for speculative investments. Instead, we're witnessing something more profound: institutional recognition of Bitcoin's role in the debasement trade. While this may feel less exciting than previous cycles, it represents Bitcoin's maturation into a legitimate macro asset that doesn't need retail enthusiasm to appreciate.

Check out the [full podcast here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uZW0j-sW6w&feature=youtu.be&ref=tftc.io) for more on treasury company dynamics, iBit options explosion, and the $95K floor thesis.

* * *

### Headlines of the Day

[Mara Holdings Buys 400 Bitcoin for $46.3M](https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1977698077675757896?ref=tftc.io)

[Dubai Ruler Hails Leading Virtual Assets Market](https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1977664686754824649?ref=tftc.io)

[BlackRock CEO Views Bitcoin Like Gold Alternative](https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1977651735595499996?ref=tftc.io)

[Gold Reaches New All-Time High at $4,075](https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1977610193694581152?ref=tftc.io)

[Lagarde Admits Bitcoin Disrupting Financial System](https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1977346762949243139?ref=tftc.io)

* * *

### Bitcoiners: Don’t let nefarious actors steal your sats.

SLNT's patented Faraday backpacks, sleeves, and dry bags secure your hardware wallet or electronics against hackers and solar flares.

Block WiFi, GPS, RFID, and EMPs with our MIL-STD compliant tech. Made in the USA, trusted by 8 military contracts. Protect your wealth, stay untraceable.

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* * *

### Obscura – The World’s Best VPN Built by Bitcoiners

Created by Carl Dong (former Bitcoin Core contributor), unlike other VPNs, it _can’t_ log your activity by design, delivering verifiable privacy you can trust.

[![Silicon Valley Doesn't Understand Money](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/08/newsletter-1.jpg)](https://obscura.net/?ref=tftc.io)

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* * *

[![Silicon Valley Doesn't Understand Money](https://www.tftc.io/content/images/2025/10/D1.png)](https://unchnd.co/4nulnb8?ref=tftc.io)

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xa/HZZtPHmoheiYnMFiNynp5msJi4kLso8SJ8CcHtKi1EcB6FwPPVQH1nNhKKcisIyu4HOY/vmGqgb+hbt6EWQ==?iv=RcpJYZgPQilnEGkVBUUcrA==


Hahahaha. Get bent.
https://blossom.primal.net/6b3687e1586829efd4cf83580ab1f40121a2ce71ac1e6de12b688f19122ca90e.jpg


Salute 🫡


3hLNxWgxZYR0/So3JC5BO2q0CF6gLseLIVYy4+kZ6tY9AK2SpRcp2CG0O64QMUwW?iv=qk1NQCY4e6CIfG0PwR06xQ==


RSS-to-Nostr of Declassified UK

about:
RSS-to-Nostr feed of Declassified UK
More RSS-To-Nostr can be found in my following list


New OP_RETURN
{p:brc-20,op:mint,tick:KEK,amt:10000}
https://mempool.space/tx/a71d0fd8cd7bce2dc2056c55772cd26824bebeeacd891e5da434159f5451071b


> !['The Lightning Network' Does Not Exist](https://www.discreetlog.com/content/images/2023/03/lightningnetwork.webp)
>
> The former seems to have found solid product market fit. Expect significant volume, adoption, and usage going forward.
>
> The latter's future remains to be seen. Dependence on Tor, which has had massive reliability issues, and lack of strong privacy guarantees put it at risk.
>
> — ODELL (@ODELL) [October 27, 2022](https://twitter.com/ODELL/status/1585633149815377922?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=discreetlog.com)

**The Basics**

*   Lightning is a protocol that enables cheap and fast native bitcoin transactions.
*   At the core of the protocol is the ability for bitcoin users to create a payment channel with another user.
*   These payment channels enable users to make many bitcoin transactions between each other with only two on-chain bitcoin transactions: the channel open transaction and the channel close transaction.
*   Essentially lightning is a protocol for interoperable batched bitcoin transactions.
*   It is expected that on chain [bitcoin transaction fees will increase](https://www.discreetlog.com/utxos/) with adoption and the ability to easily batch transactions will save users significant money.
*   As these lightning transactions are processed, liquidity flows from one side of a channel to the other side, on chain transactions are signed by both parties but not broadcasted to update this balance.
*   Lightning is designed to be trust minimized, either party in a payment channel can close the channel at any time and their bitcoin will be settled on chain without trusting the other party.

**There is no 'Lightning Network'**

*   Many people refer to the aggregate of all lightning channels as 'The Lightning Network' but this is a false premise.
*   There are many lightning channels between many different users and funds can flow across interconnected channels as long as there is a route through peers.
*   If a lightning transaction requires multiple hops it will flow through multiple interconnected channels, adjusting the balance of all channels along the route, and paying lightning transaction fees that are set by each node on the route.

**Example:** You have a channel with Bob. Bob has a channel with Charlie. You can pay Charlie through your channel with Bob and Bob's channel with User C.

*   As a result, it is not guaranteed that every lightning user can pay every other lightning user, they must have a route of interconnected channels between sender and receiver.

**Lightning in Practice**

*   Lightning has already found product market fit and usage as an interconnected payment protocol between large professional custodians.
*   They are able to easily manage channels and liquidity between each other without trust using this interoperable protocol.
*   Lightning payments between large custodians are fast and easy. End users do not have to run their own node or manage their channels and liquidity. These payments rarely fail due to professional management of custodial nodes.
*   The tradeoff is one inherent to custodians and other trusted third parties. Custodial wallets can steal funds and compromise user privacy.

**Sovereign Lightning**

*   Trusted third parties are [security holes](https://nakamotoinstitute.org/trusted-third-parties/?ref=discreetlog.com).
*   Users must run their own node and manage their own channels in order to use lightning without trusting a third party. This remains the single largest friction point for sovereign lightning usage: the mental burden of actively running a lightning node and associated liquidity management.
*   Bitcoin development prioritizes node accessibility so cost to self host your own node is low but if a node is run at home or office, Tor or a VPN is recommended to mask your IP address: otherwise it is visible to the entire network and represents a privacy risk.
*   This privacy risk is heightened due to the potential for certain governments to go after sovereign lightning users and compel them to shutdown their nodes. If their IP Address is exposed they are easier to target.
*   Fortunately the tools to run and manage nodes continue to get easier but it is important to understand that this will always be a friction point when compared to custodial services.

**The Potential Fracture of Lightning**

*   Any lightning user can choose which users are allowed to open channels with them.
*   One potential is that professional custodians only peer with other professional custodians.
*   We already see nodes like those run by CashApp only have channels open with other regulated counterparties. This could be due to performance goals, liability reduction, or regulatory pressure.

[!['The Lightning Network' Does Not Exist](https://www.discreetlog.com/content/images/2023/03/cashapp-2.webp)](https://mempool.space/lightning/node/02e1221434a21b8ce5818e92c6ec76301824dc87ed94b4628242e4b1f4a6ff445f?ref=discreetlog.com)

*   Fortunately some of their peers are connected to non-regulated parties so payments to and from sovereign lightning users are still successfully processed by CashApp but this may not always be the case going forward.

**Summary**

*   Many people refer to the aggregate of all lightning channels as 'The Lightning Network' but this is a false premise. There is no singular 'Lightning Network' but rather many payment channels between distinct peers, some connected with each other and some not.
*   Lightning as an interoperable payment protocol between professional custodians seems to have found solid product market fit. Expect significant volume, adoption, and usage going forward.
*   Lightning as a robust sovereign payment protocol has yet to be battle tested. Heavy reliance on Tor, which has had massive reliability issues, the friction of active liquidity management, significant on chain fee burden for small amounts, interactivity constraints on mobile, and lack of strong privacy guarantees put it at risk.

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_If you have never used lightning before, use_ [_this guide_](https://werunbtc.com/phoenix?ref=discreetlog.com) _to get started on your phone._

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**_If you found this post helpful support my work with_** [**_bitcoin_**](https://geyser.fund/project/citadel?ref=discreetlog.com)**_._**

!['The Lightning Network' Does Not Exist](https://werunbtc.com/donate.png)